We have already posted our prediction for the start of the next global Covid-19 wave here, and the October 23rd date we mentioned as being the start of the next wave also seems to be close to an inflexion point for global Covid deaths too. In 2020, the global death rate started to accelerate from October 19th. The next two weeks will be crucial in determining how severe Covid-19 will be this winter.
Our forecast is for the next global wave to start on or around 23rd October 2021:
The inflexion point for an increase in global deaths was on the 19th October 2020. Will vaccines and herd immunity help reduce the size of the next winter wave?
Below is the interactive OurworldinData chart for global biweekly deaths.
You can see clearly that the first global Covid wave from October 2020 to February 2021 was larger than the second Covid wave from February to June 2021. The global cases chart shows a collapsed first peak due to limited recording over the winter holidays. Cases may not have been recorded in that period, but deaths, of course, were, giving an indication of just how large the first Covid-19 wave really was.
Below is the interactive chart for global biweekly cases, with a trough expected around 23rd October 2021. Note the collapsed peak of the first wave due to the lack of recording over the winter holidays.
A visualization of what the first global peak in Covid cases would probably have looked like were it not for the lapse in recording from Thanksgiving 2020 through New Year of 2021.
Sadly, we don’t think that the three declining global peaks we have seen so far represent a trend that will continue into this coming winter of 2021. We should be able to tell by mid-November 2021 just how severe the next global Covid winter wave will be, and we will update Coronaheadsup.com in a new post around that time.
12th October 2021: An early indication from Britain of where we are headed?
Quick reaction to today’s weekly deaths data in this thread from @ActuaryByDay. Deaths remain unusually high again this week, as illustrated here.
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) October 12, 2021
Sars-CoV-2 global attacks have come in regular four monthly waves in 2021. Will the next wave trough, or CovidMinimum, be on or around 23rd October 2021, with about 5.18 million biweekly infections? Place your bets!
We think that the first wave shown above, from October 2020 to February 2021, had a collapsed peak caused by a lack of reporting over the Thanksgiving, Christmas & winter holidays. The wave was probably at least as big, if not bigger, than the second wave from February to June 2021.
The winter peak for Covid cases in 2020/2021 would probably have looked something like this if case recording hadn’t been interrupted by the winter holidays:
Have a go yourself with the interactive chart below! The button is pretty cool. To update it, press the date in the bottom right corner of the chart.
32 percent of the population of the globe has now been fully vaccinated against Covid-19, but the global case fatality rate has started increasing again – for the first time in four months.
Note the four monthly CFR cycle, giving three global Covid waves a year.
With nearly 4 million new cases reported globally in the past week (6-12 September), this represents the first substantial decline in weekly cases in more than two months. All regions reported declines in new cases as compared to the previous week.
At Coronaheadsup, our hunch is that the next Covidminimum for this wave (i.e. the trough of the current wave) should be on the 13th October or the 11th November 2020 if there is a connection to lunar phases, as outlined in this post:
** UPDATE **
The third global wave of 2021 peaked around the full moon of August 22nd, so earlier than we expected. If the waves are linked to phases of the moon, then the next trough, or Covidminimum, would be around the full moon on the 13th October 2021.
Based on the trough pattern though, the waves could just be repeating every four months, meaning three waves a year. If the waves are spaced evenly 4 months apart, then the next Covidminimum would be on ~20th October.
The number of infections could also be important in the formation of a new wave. Both of the last two troughs bottomed out at about 2.5 million infections before starting to rise again.
The latest self-updating world Covid-19 cases chart is shown below.
We noted earlier this year, in April 2021, the odd, almost unnatural, behaviour of this virus:
Below is an updated chart of global deaths for Covid-19 up to September 2021. After 20 months, the coronavirus still remains within the boundary of 5,000 to 20,000 deaths a day globally.
We are struggling to see much evidence of 3 billion worldwide vaccinations in these charts, although the reduced deaths to cases ratio in the second wave may offer some comfort to the vaccine manufacturers.
The World Health Organization has thrown in the towel and surrendered to Covid. The WHO have finally realised that Covid-19 vaccines aren’t going to save our asses, and they are now recommending that governments around the world learn to live with the virus. Yes, that’ll be the same virus that has already killed millions, disabled tens of millions, and infected hundreds of millions. Sars-CoV-2 is apparently something we can learn to live with though, just like the ebola virus, or polio, or smallpox, or the bubonic plague.
Welcome to the new normal!
Dr Hans Kluge: “I think it brings us to the point that the aim of a vaccination is first and foremost to prevent more serious disease, and that’s mortality. If we consider that Covid will continue to mutate and remain with us, the way influenza is, then we should anticipate how to gradually adapt our vaccination strategy to endemic transmission and gather really precious knowledge about the impact of additional jabs,” he added.
The Daily Mail has gone into meltdown over this one: “Covid vaccines won’t end pandemic and officials must now ‘gradually adapt strategy’ to cope with inevitable spread of virus, World Health Organization official warns“
** Just to be clear, there will be NO mild “endemic” phase of Sars-CoV-2. Throwing in the towel now will condemn hundreds of millions to die because we haven’t got the backbone to make the sacrifices necessary. **
The John Hopkins University Covid-19 dashboard is now showing that more than four million people have died in the coronavirus pandemic and 185 millions cases have been recorded. Will the final death toll be somewhere near the 150 million dead predicted by Event 201 we wonder?
How is this graph even possible? For more than one year the global death toll for Sars-Cov-2 has oscillated between ~5,000 deaths a day to ~20,000 deaths a day creating a pattern that is almost ECG like in its uniformity. Answers on a postcard please, because we do not see anything natural about this graph.
The Covid-19 pandemic has caused mass trauma on a larger scale than World War II, and the impact will last “for many years to come,” the World Health Organization’s top official said Friday.
“After the Second World War, the world has experienced mass trauma, because Second World War affected many, many lives. And now, even with this Covid pandemic, with bigger magnitude, more lives have been affected,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a news conference Friday. “Almost the whole world is affected, each and every individual on the surface of the world actually has been affected.”
“And that means mass trauma, which is beyond proportion, even bigger than what the world experienced after the Second World War,” he added, noting the effect on mental health. “And when there is mass trauma, it affects communities for many years to come.”
The global case fatality rate, which fell consistently from May 1st 2020 until January 18th 2021, is now rising steadily and currently stands at 2.21%
The global Covid-19 case rate (those who have tested positive for sars-cov-2 by testing) has fallen recently, but the case fatality rate (those who have died of Covid-19 following a confirmed test) has not fallen in step with the case reduction.
The most obvious conclusion is that the Covid-19 fatality rate is just lagging the case rate by some weeks. Alternatively, the recent bad weather across much of Europe may have affected testing capacity.
There are other possible explanations though:
- More aggressive Sars-cov-2 variants are leading to an increase in the mortality rate without a corresponding increase in case rates – see here
- Sars-cov-2 variants may be evading testing?
John Hopkins University figures for 24th January 2021:
Coronavirus has now reached the last continent on Earth with the first cases identified in Antarctica.
The Chilean army announced that 36 people linked with the General Bernardo O’Higgins Riquelme base on the planet’s southern pole had tested positive for COVID-19.\