Four scenarios have been modelled that differ in the speed of easing restrictions from current levels to minimal measures. All four scenarios modelled lead to a substantial resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths.
The scale and timing of these resurgences are critically dependent on very uncertain modelled assumptions, including real world vaccine effectiveness against severe disease and infection; vaccine coverage and rollout speed; behavioural factors; and the extent to which baseline measures (which could be voluntary) continue to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted. Given this uncertainty, it would be inadvisable to tie changes in policy to dates instead of data.
SPI-M-O: Summary of modelling on scenarios for easing restrictions
Date: 7th February 2021