“At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days. In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.
Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.”
Some 7% of Israel’s serious and critical COVID-19 cases were vaccinated with three shots of the coronavirus vaccine, according to data released Friday morning by the Israeli Health Ministry. Another 17% were vaccinated with two shots more than six months ago, according to the data.
“I cannot say that 7% is a lot,” Health Minister Director-General Prof. Nachman Ash told The Jerusalem Post. “The vaccine, even the third shot, does not work at 100%.” He said that there are always a small percentage of people who do not develop full immunity, such as those who are immunosuppressed.”
Nearly 44% of eligible Israelis have been vaccinated with a third “booster” dose of Covid-19 vaccine
“What’s interesting, is that in some of the children, it really appears as a direct continuation of severe illness but in very many of the children, there is a severe illness, followed by a lull of several months and only then do the symptoms of long COVID begin,” says Ashkenazi-Hoffnung.
There are “a few children here who, a year after the illness, haven’t recovered, and they have symptoms that are affecting their day-to-day functioning. There are cases in which it lasts for more than a year.”
We have already posted our prediction for the start of the next global Covid-19 wave here, and the October 23rd date we mentioned as being the start of the next wave also seems to be close to an inflexion point for global Covid deaths too. In 2020, the global death rate started to accelerate from October 19th. The next two weeks will be crucial in determining how severe Covid-19 will be this winter.
Our forecast is for the next global wave to start on or around 23rd October 2021:
The inflexion point for an increase in global deaths was on the 19th October 2020. Will vaccines and herd immunity help reduce the size of the next winter wave?
Below is the interactive OurworldinData chart for global biweekly deaths.
You can see clearly that the first global Covid wave from October 2020 to February 2021 was larger than the second Covid wave from February to June 2021. The global cases chart shows a collapsed first peak due to limited recording over the winter holidays. Cases may not have been recorded in that period, but deaths, of course, were, giving an indication of just how large the first Covid-19 wave really was.
Below is the interactive chart for global biweekly cases, with a trough expected around 23rd October 2021. Note the collapsed peak of the first wave due to the lack of recording over the winter holidays.
A visualization of what the first global peak in Covid cases would probably have looked like were it not for the lapse in recording from Thanksgiving 2020 through New Year of 2021.
Sadly, we don’t think that the three declining global peaks we have seen so far represent a trend that will continue into this coming winter of 2021. We should be able to tell by mid-November 2021 just how severe the next global Covid winter wave will be, and we will update Coronaheadsup.com in a new post around that time.
12th October 2021: An early indication from Britain of where we are headed?
Quick reaction to today’s weekly deaths data in this thread from @ActuaryByDay. Deaths remain unusually high again this week, as illustrated here.
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) October 12, 2021
There’s a headline we never thought we would write.
A partially vaccinated 11-year-old tiger at the Brookfield Zoo has tested positive for COVID-19. The zoo received confirmation of Amur tiger Malena’s positive test this week after she started showing mild respiratory symptoms, including coughing and sneezing, late last week. Those symptoms are consistent with what other zoos have seen in big cats infected with COVID-19, according to a statement from the Chicago Zoological Society.
Sars-CoV-2 global attacks have come in regular four monthly waves in 2021. Will the next wave trough, or CovidMinimum, be on or around 23rd October 2021, with about 5.18 million biweekly infections? Place your bets!
We think that the first wave shown above, from October 2020 to February 2021, had a collapsed peak caused by a lack of reporting over the Thanksgiving, Christmas & winter holidays. The wave was probably at least as big, if not bigger, than the second wave from February to June 2021.
The winter peak for Covid cases in 2020/2021 would probably have looked something like this if case recording hadn’t been interrupted by the winter holidays:
Have a go yourself with the interactive chart below! The button is pretty cool. To update it, press the date in the bottom right corner of the chart.
We have investigated a nosocomial COVID-19 outbreak involving the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant among a highly vaccinated population. The attack rate among exposed individuals reached 23.3% in patients and 10.3% in staff, with 96.2% vaccination rate among exposed individuals. Moreover, several transmissions probably occurred between two individuals both wearing surgical masks, and in one instance using full PPE, including N-95 mask, face shield, gown and gloves.
Although reports of breakthrough infections are increasing, this communication emphasises several points. It challenges the assumption that high universal vaccination rates will lead to herd immunity and prevent COVID-19 outbreaks. This was probably true for the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus, but in the outbreak described here, 96.2% of the exposed population was vaccinated. Infection advanced rapidly (many cases became symptomatic within 2 days of exposure), and viral load was high.
In the present study, we report a new sub-lineage of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant called AY.29, which has C5239T and T5514C mutations. We investigated the monthly trend of AY.29 in Japan within 11,954 Delta variants downloaded on September 3, 2021. Among the total Japanese Delta variants, the AY.29 sub-lineage accounted for 88.4%. In terms of monthly changes, the sequences became predominant in June, and accounted for 93.2% and 94.2% of the reported sequences in July and August, respectively.
“The majority of new Covid cases each day are among school-age children, most of whom are not vaccinated against COVID-19. As of 23rd September 2021, 36,822 of the active COVID cases were among school-age children, making up more than 56% of all current cases. Another 90,000 students were in mandatory quarantine after exposure to a COVID patient.”
32 percent of the population of the globe has now been fully vaccinated against Covid-19, but the global case fatality rate has started increasing again – for the first time in four months.
Note the four monthly CFR cycle, giving three global Covid waves a year.
Public health observers are confident that China’s “zero tolerance” COVID-19 policy will safeguard the country to withstand epidemic flare-ups, although the outbreak in East China’s Fujian Province is still intense and Northeast China’s Heilongjiang Province reported three fresh cases on Tuesday during the national holidays to mark the Mid-Autumn Festival.
China also shut an entire city down today after ONE case of Covid-19 was found:
“Chinese officials shut down the northern city of Harbin after a single patient was hospitalized with Covid-19, adding a second flank to the country’s ongoing delta outbreak during the Mid-Autumn Festival and public holidays.”
“One vaccine dose can be used for five intradermal injections,” a Thai doctor said.
Doctors in Thailand have been given the go-ahead to start giving Covid-19 booster shots under the skin, rather than injecting them into muscles, officials said on Monday (Sept 20), in an effort to strengthen immunity and stretch vaccine supplies.
Dr Chalermpong Sukonthaphon, director of the Vachira Hospital in Phuket, said his hospital had been given the green light to use the technique from Friday as trials had shown that it triggered a similar immune response to the regular method.
Six African lions, a Sumatran tiger and two Amur tigers at the National Zoo in Washington have tested positive for the coronavirus, which causes Covid-19, the Smithsonian Institution said Friday.
Animal caretakers observed appetites, coughing, sneezing and lethargy in six African lions, a Sumatran tiger and two Amur tigers, and final results were expected in coming days to confirm the presumptive positive coronavirus test results, said the Smithsonian, which operates the zoo.
“All lions and tigers are being treated with anti-inflammatories and anti-nausea medication to address discomfort and decreased appetite,” the zoo said on its website, adding that they were also being treated with antibiotics for possible secondary bacterial pneumonia.
Covid-19 cases in Malaysia involving children leapt to 310,074 as at the end of August, which is 25 times more than the whole of last year. The number was only 12,620 last year. A total of 41 children have died so far this year, compared with just six in 2020, the health ministry said on Sept 2.
Reports of unusual symptoms among children have also surfaced online. On Sept 8, one Penang-based doctor claimed on Instagram that she had attended to two children within the same week who could not walk after becoming infected with Covid-19. The doctor said one of the cases involved a four-year-old girl who had a seizure a week after recovering from Covid-19. Three days later, the child’s mother reported that her daughter could not walk properly.