Dr Kobi Haviv, Herzog Hospital, Jerusalem: “95% of the severe patients are vaccinated”. “85-90% of the hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated people.” “The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out”
"95% of the severe patients are vaccinated".
"85-90% of the hospitalizations are in Fully vaccinated people."
"We are opening more and more COVID wards."
"The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out"
— Ran Israeli (@RanIsraeli) August 5, 2021
Shi Zhengli, China’s ‘Bat Woman’, has said that new variants of Sars-Cov-2 will continue to emerge, but that vaccines are ‘effective’. “We shouldn’t panic, but we need to prepare to co-exist with the virus in the long term,” Shi told media on Wednesday.
Hospitalizations in areas of Japan with many coronavirus infections could in principle be limited to patients with severe symptoms and those at high risk of developing them, while people not hospitalized would basically be required to recover at home, the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare announced on Aug. 2.
People admitted to hotels for recuperation would be limited only to people who are thought to have circumstances that suggest they could spread the coronavirus with others at home.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga decided that only patients with severe cases of COVID-19 can be admitted to hospital, making a policy U-turn. The government had previously said that all patients except for those with mild coughing symptoms should be hospitalized in principle.
“There’s no country that has attained herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2. And, certainly, there are countries with different levels of vaccination. I mean, some countries have over 60 percent of their population fully vaccinated. There are also countries that have had natural exposure to the infection at very high rates. But it hasn’t extinguished the pandemic. We’ve always seen surges even after that. And I think that reflects several factors.
One, I think natural immunity can wane over time. And I think the durability of that immunity does depend on the severity of original infection. When infections are mild and asymptomatic, we can have at least weighting of neutralizing antibodies and how that correlates with waning immunity. We don’t know yet, but we know that re-infection, or the getting infected again with the virus, either the same variant or another variant, are far more common than we originally thought. Although there is protection, even over longer duration of time, it’s not absolute.”
** One of just a handful of people on Earth who seems to understand the existential threat that Sars-CoV-2 poses
A report from the Alabama Department of Health’s online dashboard showed 1,883 hospitalized COVID patients, up by 432 over Sunday’s total. That’s an increase of 29.8% in just one day. The total is the highest since Feb. 1, which was during the downward trend of the winter surge in the virus, just as vaccines were first distributed. The pandemic record of 3,084 inpatients was set on Jan. 11. The new total is 11.3 times the low set on June 20 of 166 hospitalized COVID patients and 75% higher than one week ago.
Mike McCaul’s final report on the origins of the pandemic can be downloaded here.
A House Republican lawmaker’s investigation into the origins of COVID-19 is raising concerns that the pandemic outbreak stemmed from a genetically modified virus which leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the Chinese city where the disease was first detected in December 2019.
"Learn to live with the virus" either means nothing, or it means, "Learn to be quiet about the unnecessary deaths of your loved ones, friends, and compatriots."
Ain't gonna happen.
— Dominic Minghella (@DMinghella) August 1, 2021
This 👆 👆 👆
The report that encouraged the CDC to change its facemask mandate this week
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Scenario One: A variant that causes severe disease in a greater proportion of the population than has occurred to date. Scenario Two: A variant that evades current vaccines. Scenario Three: Emergence of a drug resistant variant after anti-viral strategies. Scenario Four: SARS-CoV-2 follows an evolutionary trajectory with decreased virulence.
Scenario One: A variant that causes severe disease in a greater proportion of the population than has occurred to date. For example, with similar morbidity/mortality to other zoonotic coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV (~10% case fatality) or MERS-CoV (~35% case fatality).
Likelihood of increased severity phenotype: Realistic possibility.
Scenario Two: A variant that evades current vaccines. This could be caused by: Antigenic ‘shift’: Natural recombination events that insert a different spike gene sequence (or partial sequence) from human CoVs MERS-CoV (highly unlikely due to the low frequency of MERS-CoV infections), or from currently circulating endemic human CoVs (more likely due to the prevalence of these viruses). This would recombine into the ‘body’ of SARS-CoV-2 that is capable of high replication in human cells. The consequence could be a virus that causes disease at a level similar to COVID-19 when it first emerged but against which our current battery of spike glycoprotein-based vaccines would not work.
Likelihood: Realistic possibility.
Scenario Three: Emergence of a drug resistant variant after anti-viral strategies. This could be caused by: Emergence of new variants following the administration of directly acting antiviral therapies. As we begin to use directly acting antiviral drugs it is highly likely a variant will be selected that had resistance to individual agents. For example, drugs that target the viral 3C protease, drugs that target the polymerase, monoclonal antibodies that target the spike glycoprotein. If the drugs are used as a mono therapy, then resistant variants have a high probability of emerging. This may render all drugs in that category unusable.
Likelihood: Likely – unless the drugs are used correctly.
Scenario Four: SARS-CoV-2 follows an evolutionary trajectory with decreased virulence. This could be caused by: Variants arising with increased transmissibility but decreased pathogenesis/virulence as the virus becomes fully adapted to the human host becoming an endemic infection. Coupled with the likelihood of eventual high populations immunity the infection produces less disease. In other words, this virus will become like other human CoV that causes common colds, but with much less severe disease predominantly in the old or clinically vulnerable.
Likelihood: Unlikely in the short term, realistic possibility in the long term.
What do the people who say “learn to live with the virus” actually mean?
They mean: fail to learn any of the lessons of the last 18 months, fail to mitigate against the spread of the virus and tolerate avoidable deaths and disease burden.
I’d rather we didn’t.
— Kit Yates (@Kit_Yates_Maths) July 30, 2021
Over to you Kirsty….
Latest Care Home (CH) COVID death data (to last Friday) unfortunately shows a significant increase (doubled in a fortnight) after several low weeks.
This is a population that is ~99% fully vax'd, although staff are only around 77% fully vax'd.
— John Roberts (@john_actuary) July 27, 2021
Please check your care home lockdown plans now, this could escalate quite quickly.
The number of people who, very clearly, do not want this drop in the number of Covid cases to be true is quite staggering. What is wrong with people? Is that they like the control/the drama/the restrictions and know that they will lose all this as we learn to live with Covid?
— Kirstie Allsopp (@KirstieMAllsopp) July 26, 2021
Learn to live with Covid?
- Over 4 million dead in 18 months
- Nearly 200 million infections
- 5%, 10% or even 30% of Covid-19 infections become Long Covid cases – that’s between 10 million and 60 million Long Covid cases so far
- An estimated 1,134,000 children experienced the death of primary caregivers from Covid-19, including at least one parent or custodial grandparent.
- Vaccine breakthrough cases already account for more than 50% of new Covid-19 infections in some countries
We’ll be adding more reasons why it’s impossible to learn to live with Covid here as more and more people become fascinated by this glib solution to a raging pandemic.
US President Joe Biden says Covid long haulers will have access to disability protections – the first world leader to do the right thing on this issue. After yesterday’s video conference with Survivor_Corps where long Covid survivors and their families gave extraordinarily harrowing accounts of their situations (see below), let’s hope Joe Biden is as good as his word. We are all soldiers in a war against an unseen enemy that has taken millions of lives already, with millions more to come. Let’s leave no soldier behind.
According to data updated Wednesday by the Illinois Department of Public Health, 159 people and 593 have been hospitalized in Illinois have died due to COVID-19 or complications after being fully vaccinated. That figure equates to 2.3% of COVID-19 deaths in the state since Jan. 1, officials said. The state only reports breakthrough infections among those who have been hospitalized or died.