Europe suddenly ablaze with Covid – it could be the biggest wave yet

We predicted here and here that we would see a fresh Covid wave after October 19th, but even we didn’t expect Europe to ignite into a raging inferno within a couple of days. It is beginning to look like Europe may be the epicentre of the biggest global Covid wave yet this coming winter. 

So much for an ‘endemic’ phase of Covid – large parts of Europe are seeing sudden huge increases in infections:


Morocco today banned flights to the UK, Germany and the Netherlands in response to the growing infection numbers.

What will happen with North America? It’s just coming out of a fairly major wave that peaked in September 2021. We should know within two weeks whether it has been spared a full-blown winter wave, but we doubt it. Relaxations in international travel over the summer will almost certainly mean a spillover from Europe to the US and Canada, which is exactly what happened in March 2020.



Winter is here. Three European nations see their highest ever Covid case rates

October 19th – 23rd could be crucial in determining how bad Covid-19 will be this winter

We have already posted our prediction for the start of the next global Covid-19 wave here, and the October 23rd date we mentioned as being the start of the next wave also seems to be close to an inflexion point for global Covid deaths too. In 2020, the global death rate started to accelerate from October 19th. The next two weeks will be crucial in determining how severe Covid-19 will be this winter.

Our forecast is for the next global wave to start on or around 23rd October 2021:


The inflexion point for an increase in global deaths was on the 19th October 2020. Will vaccines and herd immunity help reduce the size of the next winter wave?


Below is the interactive OurworldinData chart for global biweekly deaths.

You can see clearly that the first global Covid wave from October 2020 to February 2021 was larger than the second Covid wave from February to June 2021. The global cases chart shows a collapsed first peak due to limited recording over the winter holidays. Cases may not have been recorded in that period, but deaths, of course, were, giving an indication of just how large the first Covid-19 wave really was. 



Below is the interactive chart for global biweekly cases, with a trough expected around 23rd October 2021. Note the collapsed peak of the first wave due to the lack of recording over the winter holidays.


A visualization of what the first global peak in Covid cases would probably have looked like were it not for the lapse in recording from Thanksgiving 2020 through New Year of 2021.

Sadly, we don’t think that the three declining global peaks we have seen so far represent a trend that will continue into this coming winter of 2021. We should be able to tell by mid-November 2021 just how severe the next global Covid winter wave will be, and we will update in a new post around that time.


12th October 2021: An early indication from Britain of where we are headed?

WHO: Vaccines won’t save us. We’ll have to learn to live with the virus

The World Health Organization has thrown in the towel and surrendered to Covid. The WHO have finally realised that Covid-19 vaccines aren’t going to save our asses, and they are now recommending that governments around the world learn to live with the virus. Yes, that’ll be the same virus that has already killed millions, disabled tens of millions, and infected hundreds of millions. Sars-CoV-2 is apparently something we can learn to live with though, just like the ebola virus, or polio, or smallpox, or the bubonic plague.

Welcome to the new normal!

Dr Hans Kluge:  “I think it brings us to the point that the aim of a vaccination is first and foremost to prevent more serious disease, and that’s mortality. If we consider that Covid will continue to mutate and remain with us, the way influenza is, then we should anticipate how to gradually adapt our vaccination strategy to endemic transmission and gather really precious knowledge about the impact of additional jabs,” he added.

Hans Kluge quotes from The article

The Daily Mail has gone into meltdown over this one:Covid vaccines won’t end pandemic and officials must now ‘gradually adapt strategy’ to cope with inevitable spread of virus, World Health Organization official warns


Kirsty Allsopp: We have to learn to live with Covid


** Just to be clear, there will be NO mild “endemic” phase of Sars-CoV-2.  Throwing in the towel now will condemn hundreds of millions to die because we haven’t got the backbone to make the sacrifices necessary. **



Britain surrenders to the coronavirus

“We can’t control the spread of the virus. The virus is doing what it’s doing and we have to react to that”.



Just yesterday…

Children to spearhead Britain’s winter offensive against the coronavirus

UK Covid app confirms vaccines are waning

Joinzoe: “We found that initial protection against infection a month after the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine was 88%, while after five to six months this fell to 74%.  For the AstraZeneca vaccine, there was around 77% protection a month after the second dose, falling to 67% after four to five months.

This analysis included:

  • 411,642 test results from users who were doubly vaccinated with the Pfizer mRNA vaccine at the time of the infection 
  • 709,486 test results from users who were doubly vaccinated with the AstraZeneca vaccine
  • 76,051 test results from users who were not yet vaccinated at the time of the infection

We found that initial protection against infection a month after the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine was 88%, while after five to six months this fell to 74%.”

Professor Tim Spector, lead scientist at the ZOE COVID Study, says:

“A reasonable worst-case scenario could see protection below 50 percent for the elderly and healthcare workers by winter. With high levels of infection in the UK, driven by loosened social restrictions and a highly transmissible variant, this scenario could mean increased hospitalisations and deaths. 

Joinzoe Covid App: Is COVID vaccine protection fading?


UK: Vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta infections still increasing



Image by mdgrafik0 from Pixabay

USA: All captive mink in Oregon must be vaccinated by 31st August 2021

By August 31, 2021, any person holding captive mink in Oregon must vaccinate all captive mink on their premises against the SARS-CoV-2 virus using an approved vaccine according to all vaccine manufacturer instructions. Any captive mink born or imported after August 31, 2021 must be vaccinated within 120 days of the birth of any captive mink, or within 60 days of the date that any captive mink are imported into Oregon.


Any person holding captive mink in Oregon must participate in surveillance testing for SARS-CoV-2 according to guidelines established by the Oregon Department of Agriculture in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Oregon Department of Agriculture Statement

** We know that vaccines don’t prevent transmission of, or infection by, the Delta variant of Sars-CoV-2. It’s unlikely that vaccinating mink will prevent mutations of the virus being created either. Not destroying these animals is a huge and unnecessary risk to humanity. Ed.** 


Mink: 100% infection, recovery and then 75% re-infection of farmed mink

Sars-CoV-2 – checkmate to the virus in four moves

We originally posted the tweet below over one year ago, on 1st July 2020. Despite vaccination campaigns, we believe that the game plan for the virus remains the same.


  • Attack the food supply by infecting farmed animals, food processing plants, refrigeration and logistics
  • Pick off the weakest – the young and the elderly become a focus for attacks
  • Disable the fittest with reinfections and Long Covid  
  • Control the replication of the host species by neural attacks, interrupting hormones and disrupting heart and blood supply.

Humans represent the biggest opportunity and biggest threat to the existence of the virus. With a compliant new host or hosts, the virus, which has used humans to navigate the globe, won’t have any further need for us. 

Without full sterilizing immunity, checkmate to the virus in less than one decade?


USA: Sars-CoV-2 antibodies detected in 33% of White-Tailed Deer samples


COVID-19 virus in the penis long after the initial infection in humans



Related: Parasite makes mice fearless by hijacking immune cells




Image by Steve Buissinne from Pixabay



Shi Zhengli: We need to learn to live with the virus

Shi Zhengli, China’s ‘Bat Woman’, has said that new variants of Sars-Cov-2 will continue to emerge, but that vaccines are ‘effective’.  “We shouldn’t panic, but we need to prepare to co-exist with the virus in the long term,” Shi told media on Wednesday. report



Deepti Gurdasani: “This is a virus that we need to eliminate”, condemns “herd immunity” policies

“There’s no country that has attained herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2. And, certainly, there are countries with different levels of vaccination. I mean, some countries have over 60 percent of their population fully vaccinated. There are also countries that have had natural exposure to the infection at very high rates. But it hasn’t extinguished the pandemic. We’ve always seen surges even after that. And I think that reflects several factors.

One, I think natural immunity can wane over time. And I think the durability of that immunity does depend on the severity of original infection. When infections are mild and asymptomatic, we can have at least weighting of neutralizing antibodies and how that correlates with waning immunity. We don’t know yet, but we know that re-infection, or the getting infected again with the virus, either the same variant or another variant, are far more common than we originally thought. Although there is protection, even over longer duration of time, it’s not absolute.” interview with Dr. Deepti Gurdasani **


** One of just a handful of people on Earth who seems to understand the existential threat that Sars-CoV-2  poses


Dominic Minghella on “Learning to live with Covid”

This  👆  👆  👆


Kit Yates on “We have to learn to live with the virus”

Over to you Kirsty….

Kirsty Allsopp: We have to learn to live with Covid

Israel: booster vaccine jab rollout begins – third vaccination in 8 months for some

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett announced on Thursday the world’s first vaccination drive to inoculate people over 60 with a third Covid vaccine dose, starting Sunday. Speaking at a press conference at Sheba Medical Center in Tel Hashomer, where 60-year-old Herzog received the jab, Bennett said: “We are launching our third jab campaign to protect seniors in Israel. From today there is a new mitzvah: to vaccinate your fathers and mothers.” report


Israel: 60% of severely ill Covid patients are fully vaccinated


Kirsty Allsopp: We have to learn to live with Covid

Learn to live with Covid?

We’ll be adding more reasons why it’s impossible to learn to live with Covid here as more and more people become fascinated by this glib solution to a raging pandemic.



Covid-19 Map courtesy of JHU


WHO: Vaccines won’t save us. We’ll have to learn to live with the virus

Brazil: previously infected and fully vaccinated subjects with high anti-S IgG titers are susceptible to infection by VOC

Here we show that even previously infected and fully vaccinated subjects with high anti-S IgG titers are susceptible to infection by VOC, highlighting that immune responses induced by either natural infection or vaccination may not be sufficient to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 variants.

For this study we selected 72 SARS-CoV-2 recently tested positive individuals with nasopharyngeal swabs collected between mid-January and March 2021 with SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR Ct values <30. These include both cancer patients and healthcare workers (HCW) from the Brazilian National Cancer Institute (INCA), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Of those 72 subjects, six were vaccinated prior the current infection and two out of those six were also reinfection cases. Another three subjects also represented reinfections, showing a previous infection during the first wave of the pandemic in Brazil.

Six HCW included in this study have been fully or partially vaccinated with one of the vaccines available in Brazil, either CoronaVac (Sinovac/Butantã) or ChAdOx1-S/nCoV-19 (AstraZeneca/Oxford/Fiocruz). All six tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR after at least one vaccine dose and reported mild symptoms during infection. preprint: New infections by SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern after natural infections and post-vaccination in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil




Image by Rafael Moura Sb. from Pixabay