Europe suddenly ablaze with Covid – it could be the biggest wave yet

We predicted here and here that we would see a fresh Covid wave after October 19th, but even we didn’t expect Europe to ignite into a raging inferno within a couple of days. It is beginning to look like Europe may be the epicentre of the biggest global Covid wave yet this coming winter. 

So much for an ‘endemic’ phase of Covid – large parts of Europe are seeing sudden huge increases in infections:

 

Morocco today banned flights to the UK, Germany and the Netherlands in response to the growing infection numbers.

What will happen with North America? It’s just coming out of a fairly major wave that peaked in September 2021. We should know within two weeks whether it has been spared a full-blown winter wave, but we doubt it. Relaxations in international travel over the summer will almost certainly mean a spillover from Europe to the US and Canada, which is exactly what happened in March 2020.

 

 

Winter is here. Three European nations see their highest ever Covid case rates

UK ZOE app reports the highest UK Covid daily case rate ever recorded

The UK Covid App ZOE is reporting 76,402 daily Covid cases today, a figure that is higher than the previously reported official peak of 68,192 daily Covid cases on the 8th January 2021. 

 

The previously reported highest official figure for daily cases was 68,192, on January 8th 2021. The UK Covid-19 vaccine rollout, which has vaccinated 85% of the eligible population, had barely begun at that point. Note: The chart below is tracking the official UK government figures rather than the ZOE app figures.

 

The ZOE app is also reporting 1,002,466 symptomatic Covid cases in Britain, not far off the previous peak figure of 1,060,343 on January 11th 2021.

 

The official UK government dashboard figure is showing just under 50,000 daily cases, but all of the indicators are pointing in the wrong direction.

 

Britain is about to head into a winter Covid wave with more cases than ever before. Deaths from Covid are rising, and millions of children have been deliberately infected with Covid-19 after being sent to school where all mitigations were removed. There is presumably a plan here, but we are at a complete loss as to what the plan is, and the UK government aren’t telling.

UK ZOE Covid App website

 

Update 19th October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling:

 

Update 20th October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling:

 

Update 21st October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling:

 

Update 22nd October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling – that’s a near 10% rise in FOUR DAYS:

 

With 223 deaths recorded in Britain on the 19th October 2021, it’s incredibly irresponsible for the UK government to allow Covid cases to rise this far.

223 deaths were recorded in a single day in Britain on 19th October 2021

 

Winter is here. Three European nations see their highest ever Covid case rates

 

 

October 19th – 23rd could be crucial in determining how bad Covid-19 will be this winter

BMJ: One in seven children may still have Long Covid symptoms 15 weeks after infection

Up to one in seven (14%) children and young people who caught SARS-CoV-2 may have symptoms linked to the virus 15 weeks later, suggest preliminary findings from the world’s largest study on long Covid in children, led by UCL and Public Health England researchers.

For the study, published on the preprint site Research Square and funded by the UK’s National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), researchers surveyed 3,065 11- to 17-year-olds in England who had positive results in a PCR test between January and March as well as a matched control group of 3,739 11- to 17-year-olds who tested negative over the same period.

They found that, when surveyed at an average of 15 weeks after their test, 14% more young people in the test positive group had three or more symptoms of ill health, including unusual tiredness and headaches, than those in the test negative group, while 7% (one in 14) more had five or more symptoms.

The researchers said the data suggested that, over seven months between last September and March, at least 4,000 and possibly 32,000 teenagers of the total population of 11- to 17-year-olds who tested positive in England may have had multiple (three or more) symptoms tied to Covid-19 infection after 15 weeks.

UCL article

Preprint: Long COVID – the physical and mental health of children and non-hospitalised young people 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection; a national matched cohort study (The CLoCk) Study.

 

 

 

Photo by Annie Spratt on Unsplash

UK ONS: Natural infection by Covid provides a similar level of protection to two vaccine doses

UK Office of National Statistics: “Two vaccination doses provided a similar level of protection to previous natural infection during the Delta-dominant period”

Modelled risk ratios of testing positive for COVID-19 by COVID-19 vaccine exposure, when the Delta variant was dominant, UK, 17 May to 14 August 2021

 

  • there was no evidence that the reduction in risk of infection from two doses of either vaccine differed from that of previous natural infection
  • two doses (14 days or more previously) of Pfizer-BioNTech reduced the risk of testing positive by 73% (95% confidence interval: 70% to 76%) in the Delta period, compared with 80% (95% confidence interval: 74% to 85%) in the Alpha period​
  • two doses (14 days or more previously) of Oxford-AstraZeneca reduced the risk of testing positive by 62% (95% confidence interval: 58% to 66%) in the Delta period, compared with 76% (95% confidence interval: 62% to 85%) in the Alpha period
  • the reduction in risk 14 days or more after second dose was significantly higher with Pfizer-BioNTech compared with Oxford-AstraZeneca​
  • the risk reduction from two doses of either vaccine was greater than from one dose (21 days or more previously)

 

UK ONS report:  Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey Technical Article: Impact of vaccination on testing positive in the UK: October 2021

 

 

UK ONS: one in sixty people infected with Covid, worst infection rate since January 2021

The prevalence of COVID-19 infections in England increased to around 1 in 60 people in the week ending Oct 9 2021, Britain’s Office for National Statistics said on Friday, reaching its highest level since January 2021. The ONS said that prevalence of infections had risen for its third straight week, having been at 1 in 70 people in the previous week.

The UK government Covid dashboard is showing all red:

 

The UK ZOE Covid app confirms that the infection figures are the highest since January – just as the vaccines were starting to be rolled out.  

 

The UK government Covid dashboard shows that nearly 80% of the eligible population have been fully vaccinated:

 

UK infections in children have spiralled out of control following the removal of all mitigations in schools. It’s a deliberate and disastrous policy of mass infection of kids that will blight an entire future generation.

 

And finally, a Twitter thread that might go some way towards explaining these extraordinary UK numbers:

Based on preprint: Detailed reconstruction of the Iranian COVID-19 epidemic reveals high attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 in several provinces

UK: start to pandemic “worst public health failure ever” – a failure that is still ongoing

The UK government approach – backed by its scientists – was to try to manage the situation and in effect achieve herd immunity by infection, it said. This led to a delay in introducing the first lockdown, costing lives.

BBC report

Full Parliamentary report here

 

Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and our prediction of the outcome of the policy

Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and ignores warnings from Italian doctors about the severity of the coronavirus

 

Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, March 13th 2020 – warning of a catastrophe in UK schools if they are left open. This is another lesson still not learned. Millions of British schoolchildren have been infected by Covid-19 in UK schools in 2021, with no mitigations allowed.
In an ongoing attempt to impose herd immunity, defenceless British kids are being told to fight a BSL4 pathogen in classrooms with no protection, mitigations, bubbles or vaccines. It’s homicidal insanity, and by far the biggest scandal of this pandemic.

What we don’t want or need is another government apology or a public inquiry in a year’s time after millions more lives have been wrecked by this virus. We need preventative action, and we need it NOW.

 

Sars-CoV-2 – checkmate to the virus in four moves

UK: nearly one million people are predicted to have symptomatic Covid in Britain

The ZOE Covid-19 app is showing another huge rise in symptomatic coronavirus cases across the UK, and the pandemic record peak set in January 2021 may soon be broken if the rise isn’t checked. The official UK government figures for Covid-19 are not reflecting the rise that the ZOE app is seeing.

The UK government is pivoting away from free Covid testing, presumably to reduce the official count even further.  All of this is happening with the winter Covid surge about to start in Britain, with a peak estimated to be in about ten weeks time, just before Christmas 2021

The ZOE app is now showing over 70,000 new Covid cases in Britain every day

 

Official UK government figures are showing less than half the number of infections that the ZOE Covid app is picking up

 

All of this, of course, with the backdrop of Britain having vaccinated nearly 85% of its population. Across the four UK countries, 92.7% to 94.1% had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 81.7% to 86.7% were fully vaccinated

 

The UK could set a new pandemic record for symptomatic cases in the coming days.

 

The UK government and its advisors have been asleep at the wheel for the entire pandemic. As tens of thousands of British kids become infected in schools across the country, there is no sign that they are preparing to wake from their slumber anytime soon. By the time they do, the damage, the irreversible damage, will have already been done.

 

Scotland: 78% of Covid deaths, 64% of hospitalizations and 50% of new cases are fully vaccinated

The Covid-19 situation in Scotland seems to have deteriorated alarmingly since we last checked. For the most recent period reported, 78% of Covid-19 deaths were fully vaccinated, 64% of hospitalizations were fully vaccinated and 50% of new infections were fully vaccinated.

The information below comed from Public Health Scotland, and can be downloaded here.  The key charts from the report are reproduced below. We have excluded the partially vaccinated from the results for clarity.

 

Covid-19 deaths in Scotland – 78% are fully vaccinated:

 

Covid-19 hospitalizations in Scotland – 64% are fully vaccinated:

 

New Covid-19 cases in Scotland – 50% are fully vaccinated:

 

Underlying data from Public Health Scotland

Deaths:

 

Hospitalizations:

 

Cases:

 

 

 

 

Photo by Esteban on Unsplash

Covid-19 pandemic used to test propaganda techniques on Canadians

Canadian military leaders saw the pandemic as a unique opportunity to test out propaganda techniques on an unsuspecting public, a newly released Canadian Forces report concludes.  The federal government never asked for the so-called information operations campaign, nor did cabinet authorize the initiative developed during the COVID-19 pandemic by the Canadian Joint Operations Command, then headed by Lt.-Gen. Mike Rouleau. 

But military commanders believed they didn’t need to get approval from higher authorities to develop and proceed with their plan, retired Maj.-Gen. Daniel Gosselin, who was brought in to investigate the scheme, concluded in his report.

The propaganda plan was developed and put in place in April 2020 even though the Canadian Forces had already acknowledged that “information operations and targeting policies and doctrines are aimed at adversaries and have a limited application in a domestic concept.”

Ottawa Citizen report

 

UK: Covid-19 up by 22% in one week, vaccine breakthroughs at 25% of new cases

According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 58,126 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LFT test data from up to five days ago.  An increase of 22% from 45,081 new daily cases last week.

Zoe Covid App website

UK: Covid case rate in Kettering for 10-14 year olds is now 6,200 per 100K

The Covid case in Kettering for 10-14 year old schoolkids is now over 6,200 per 100k. That’s 1 in 16 children testing positive in the last week.

It’s another glaring indictment of the UK government’s complete lack of care for its own population, and its children in particular.

 

 

This catastrophe was easily foreseeable from the beginning of the pandemic, as we pointed out in June 2020:

 

Multi-organ damage in low-risk individuals with long Covid

Young, low risk patients with ongoing symptoms of Covid-19 had signs of damage to multiple organs four months after initially being infected, a preprint study has suggested.

Initial data from 201 patients suggest that almost 70% had impairments in one or more organs four months after their initial symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BMJ.com report

Medrxiv Preprint: Multi-organ impairment in low-risk individuals with long COVID 

 

 

 

Photo by Piron Guillaume on Unsplash

BBC Wales: 88% vaccine breakthrough in Covid hospitalisations

This is how the BBC announces a near 88% vaccine breakthrough rate for Covid-19 hospitalizations in Wales:  BBC: “Nearly 13% of hospital patients with confirmed Covid were unvaccinated.

 

This is how the BBC announces a 67% vaccine breakthrough rate for new Covid cases in Wales:

BBC: “A third of people with confirmed Covid cases in Wales in the past week were unvaccinated.”

 

This is how the BBC announces a 63% vaccine breakthrough rate for the under 60’s in Wales: 

BBC: “99% of people who tested positive for Covid in the past week in Wales were under 60. Of these, 37% were unvaccinated.”

 

The full BBC report here. Is this just piss-poor journalism or deliberately misleading propaganda?

 

The table below is taken from a Public Health Wales document with breakthrough information to 21st September 2021 which can be downloaded from here

From the chart above:

For ALL patients:
493 Fully vaccinated hospitalisations
79 Unvaccinated hospitalisations
Total Hospitalisations for all patients = 572 (excluding partially vaccinated and unknown)

That’s an 86% vaccine breakthrough rate

 

For OVER 60’s:
423 Fully vaccinated hospitalisations
33 Unvaccinated hospitalisations
Total Hospitalisations for over 60’s = 456 (excluding partially vaccinated and unknown)

That’s a 92% vaccine breakthrough rate

 

Even in the under 60’s, the majority of people in hospital for Covid-19 are fully vaccinated

 

And finally, in the PHW chart below, just look at the 95% vaccine breakthrough rate for new Covid cases in those over 60yrs in the middle of the chart. The majority of new covid cases in Wales in all age groups are also fully vaccinated

Note how many people with an “unknown” vaccination status have been crammed into the that last column in the chart. Do Public Health Wales really not know the vaccination status of a fifth of new patients?

 

In conclusion then, the vaccines are NOT giving 95% protection that was initially touted. Indeed, for some age groups, the vaccines actually have a 95% failure rate.

 

Public Health Wales hospitalizations document

 

Public Health England releases detailed vaccine breakthrough information

 

Israel: “85-90% of the hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated people”

UK: Vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta infections is 27% in Technical Briefing 23

The latest UK PHE Technical Briefing 23 has just been published covering the period up to 12th September 2021. It shows that the vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta infections in the UK continues to increase. The vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta infections is now 27%, having increased by another 4% in just two weeks.

 

Technical Briefing 23, 1st February 2021 to 12th September 2021. 

27% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

Technical Briefing 23      
1st February 2021 - 12th September 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses
Delta cases593,572155,252257,357157,40027%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths1,7987221613
Percentage0.28%1.02%265%greater chance of dying

 

Technical Briefing 22, 1st February 2021 to 29th August 2021. 

23% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

Technical Briefing 22      
1st February 2021 - 29th August 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses
Delta cases492,528144,067219,716113,82323%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths1,7985361091
Percentage0.24%0.96%293%greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated

 

Technical Briefing 21, 1st February 2021 to 15th August 2021. 

19% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

1st February 2021 - 15th August 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses  
Delta cases386,735127,091183,13373,37219%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths1,189390679
Percentage0.21%0.93%335%greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated

 

Technical Briefing 20, 1st February 2021 to 2nd August 2021

16% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

1st February 2021 - 2nd August 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses  
Delta cases300,01098,722151,05447,00816%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths253402
Percentage0.17%0.86%411%greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated

 

Technical Briefing 19, 1st February 2021 to 19th July 2021

13% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

1st February 2021 - 19th July 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses  
Delta cases229,218105,298121,40228,77313%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths165224
Percentage0.14%0.78%473%greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated

 

Technical Briefing 18, 1st February 2021 to 21st June [sic] 2021

9% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

1st February 2021 - *21st June 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses  
Delta cases123,62063,70771,93210,8349%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths92118
Percentage0.13%1.09%752%greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated

 

Technical Briefing 17, 1st February 2021 to 21st June 2021

8% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

1st February 2021 - 21st June 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses  
Delta cases92,02979,33653,8227,2358%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths4450
Percentage0.08%0.69%745%greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated

 

Technical Briefing 16, 1st February 2021 to 14th June

7% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

1st February 2021 - 14th June 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses  
Delta cases60,62453,17735,5214,0877%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths3426
Percentage0.10%0.64%565%greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated

 

Technical Briefing 15, 1st February 2021 to 7th June 2021

5% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

1st February 2021 - 7th June 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses  
Delta cases33,20628,73819,5731,7855%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths2312
Percentage0.12%0.67%472%greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated

 

Technical Briefing 14, 1st February 2021 to 31st May 2021

3% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant

1st February 2021 - 31st May 2021Total casesCases in last 28 daysUnvaccinatedVaccinated with 2 doses  
Delta cases9,4277,7445,1722673%vaccine breakthrough
Delta deaths112
Percentage0.21%0.75%252%greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated

 

Public Health England releases detailed vaccine breakthrough information

 

 

Image by Matthew Priest from Pixabay