We predicted here and here that we would see a fresh Covid wave after October 19th, but even we didn’t expect Europe to ignite into a raging inferno within a couple of days. It is beginning to look like Europe may be the epicentre of the biggest global Covid wave yet this coming winter.
Morocco today banned flights to the UK, Germany and the Netherlands in response to the growing infection numbers.
What will happen with North America? It’s just coming out of a fairly major wave that peaked in September 2021. We should know within two weeks whether it has been spared a full-blown winter wave, but we doubt it. Relaxations in international travel over the summer will almost certainly mean a spillover from Europe to the US and Canada, which is exactly what happened in March 2020.
The UK Covid App ZOE is reporting 76,402 daily Covid cases today, a figure that is higher than the previously reported official peak of 68,192 daily Covid cases on the 8th January 2021.
The previously reported highest official figure for daily cases was 68,192, on January 8th 2021. The UK Covid-19 vaccine rollout, which has vaccinated 85% of the eligible population, had barely begun at that point. Note: The chart below is tracking the official UK government figures rather than the ZOE app figures.
The ZOE app is also reporting 1,002,466 symptomatic Covid cases in Britain, not far off the previous peak figure of 1,060,343 on January 11th 2021.
The official UK government dashboard figure is showing just under 50,000 daily cases, but all of the indicators are pointing in the wrong direction.
Britain is about to head into a winter Covid wave with more cases than ever before. Deaths from Covid are rising, and millions of children have been deliberately infected with Covid-19 after being sent to school where all mitigations were removed. There is presumably a plan here, but we are at a complete loss as to what the plan is, and the UK government aren’t telling.
Update 19th October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling:
Update 20th October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling:
Update 21st October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling:
Update 22nd October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling – that’s a near 10% rise in FOUR DAYS:
With 223 deaths recorded in Britain on the 19th October 2021, it’s incredibly irresponsible for the UK government to allow Covid cases to rise this far.
223 deaths were recorded in a single day in Britain on 19th October 2021
Up to one in seven (14%) children and young people who caught SARS-CoV-2 may have symptoms linked to the virus 15 weeks later, suggest preliminary findings from the world’s largest study on long Covid in children, led by UCL and Public Health England researchers.
For the study, published on the preprint site Research Square and funded by the UK’s National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), researchers surveyed 3,065 11- to 17-year-olds in England who had positive results in a PCR test between January and March as well as a matched control group of 3,739 11- to 17-year-olds who tested negative over the same period.
They found that, when surveyed at an average of 15 weeks after their test, 14% more young people in the test positive group had three or more symptoms of ill health, including unusual tiredness and headaches, than those in the test negative group, while 7% (one in 14) more had five or more symptoms.
The researchers said the data suggested that, over seven months between last September and March, at least 4,000 and possibly 32,000 teenagers of the total population of 11- to 17-year-olds who tested positive in England may have had multiple (three or more) symptoms tied to Covid-19 infection after 15 weeks.
UK Office of National Statistics: “Two vaccination doses provided a similar level of protection to previous natural infection during the Delta-dominant period”
Modelled risk ratios of testing positive for COVID-19 by COVID-19 vaccine exposure, when the Delta variant was dominant, UK, 17 May to 14 August 2021
- there was no evidence that the reduction in risk of infection from two doses of either vaccine differed from that of previous natural infection
- two doses (14 days or more previously) of Pfizer-BioNTech reduced the risk of testing positive by 73% (95% confidence interval: 70% to 76%) in the Delta period, compared with 80% (95% confidence interval: 74% to 85%) in the Alpha period
- two doses (14 days or more previously) of Oxford-AstraZeneca reduced the risk of testing positive by 62% (95% confidence interval: 58% to 66%) in the Delta period, compared with 76% (95% confidence interval: 62% to 85%) in the Alpha period
- the reduction in risk 14 days or more after second dose was significantly higher with Pfizer-BioNTech compared with Oxford-AstraZeneca
- the risk reduction from two doses of either vaccine was greater than from one dose (21 days or more previously)
The prevalence of COVID-19 infections in England increased to around 1 in 60 people in the week ending Oct 9 2021, Britain’s Office for National Statistics said on Friday, reaching its highest level since January 2021. The ONS said that prevalence of infections had risen for its third straight week, having been at 1 in 70 people in the previous week.
The UK government Covid dashboard is showing all red:
The UK ZOE Covid app confirms that the infection figures are the highest since January – just as the vaccines were starting to be rolled out.
The UK government Covid dashboard shows that nearly 80% of the eligible population have been fully vaccinated:
UK infections in children have spiralled out of control following the removal of all mitigations in schools. It’s a deliberate and disastrous policy of mass infection of kids that will blight an entire future generation.
Today marks a milestone of sorts: the number of children under 14 who've tested positive for Covid in England just passed one million (1,003,787 to be precise). 🧵 pic.twitter.com/C58QwpvJrk
— Colin Davis (@ProfColinDavis) October 15, 2021
Latest ONS infection survey has just been released.
Cases continuing to go up in Wales & England. 1 in 60 now infected in England.
*8%* of secondary school age and *3%* of primary school age kids are infected.
When are we going to say *enough is enough* and protect kids? pic.twitter.com/FDqZ1D3k6w
— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) October 15, 2021
And finally, a Twitter thread that might go some way towards explaining these extraordinary UK numbers:
Let's bust some myths 🧵
1. Herd immunity is coming soon
This is Iran. There are 3 shades of green on this map. Starting at medium green, each person living in this province has been infected on average more than once. https://t.co/5gy485mZRB pic.twitter.com/A2LUpFjQY3
— Nancy Delagrave – COVID-STOP (@RougeMatisse) October 15, 2021
The UK government approach – backed by its scientists – was to try to manage the situation and in effect achieve herd immunity by infection, it said. This led to a delay in introducing the first lockdown, costing lives.
Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and our prediction of the outcome of the policy
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) March 15, 2020
Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and ignores warnings from Italian doctors about the severity of the coronavirus
Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock, Patrick Vallance, Chris Whitty.
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) March 15, 2020
Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, March 13th 2020 – warning of a catastrophe in UK schools if they are left open. This is another lesson still not learned. Millions of British schoolchildren have been infected by Covid-19 in UK schools in 2021, with no mitigations allowed.
In an ongoing attempt to impose herd immunity, defenceless British kids are being told to fight a BSL4 pathogen in classrooms with no protection, mitigations, bubbles or vaccines. It’s homicidal insanity, and by far the biggest scandal of this pandemic.
UK: Mass gatherings WILL be banned from next weekend in dramatic government U-turn.
Now close the schools. Creating "Herd Immunity" is NOT a defence in a court of law for crimes against humanity.https://t.co/NgthAGUY8S
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) March 13, 2020
What we don’t want or need is another government apology or a public inquiry in a year’s time after millions more lives have been wrecked by this virus. We need preventative action, and we need it NOW.
The ZOE Covid-19 app is showing another huge rise in symptomatic coronavirus cases across the UK, and the pandemic record peak set in January 2021 may soon be broken if the rise isn’t checked. The official UK government figures for Covid-19 are not reflecting the rise that the ZOE app is seeing.
The UK government is pivoting away from free Covid testing, presumably to reduce the official count even further. All of this is happening with the winter Covid surge about to start in Britain, with a peak estimated to be in about ten weeks time, just before Christmas 2021
The ZOE app is now showing over 70,000 new Covid cases in Britain every day
Official UK government figures are showing less than half the number of infections that the ZOE Covid app is picking up
All of this, of course, with the backdrop of Britain having vaccinated nearly 85% of its population. Across the four UK countries, 92.7% to 94.1% had received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 81.7% to 86.7% were fully vaccinated.
The UK could set a new pandemic record for symptomatic cases in the coming days.
The UK government and its advisors have been asleep at the wheel for the entire pandemic. As tens of thousands of British kids become infected in schools across the country, there is no sign that they are preparing to wake from their slumber anytime soon. By the time they do, the damage, the irreversible damage, will have already been done.
The Covid-19 situation in Scotland seems to have deteriorated alarmingly since we last checked. For the most recent period reported, 78% of Covid-19 deaths were fully vaccinated, 64% of hospitalizations were fully vaccinated and 50% of new infections were fully vaccinated.
The information below comed from Public Health Scotland, and can be downloaded here. The key charts from the report are reproduced below. We have excluded the partially vaccinated from the results for clarity.
Covid-19 deaths in Scotland – 78% are fully vaccinated:
Covid-19 hospitalizations in Scotland – 64% are fully vaccinated:
New Covid-19 cases in Scotland – 50% are fully vaccinated:
Underlying data from Public Health Scotland
Canadian military leaders saw the pandemic as a unique opportunity to test out propaganda techniques on an unsuspecting public, a newly released Canadian Forces report concludes. The federal government never asked for the so-called information operations campaign, nor did cabinet authorize the initiative developed during the COVID-19 pandemic by the Canadian Joint Operations Command, then headed by Lt.-Gen. Mike Rouleau.
But military commanders believed they didn’t need to get approval from higher authorities to develop and proceed with their plan, retired Maj.-Gen. Daniel Gosselin, who was brought in to investigate the scheme, concluded in his report.
The propaganda plan was developed and put in place in April 2020 even though the Canadian Forces had already acknowledged that “information operations and targeting policies and doctrines are aimed at adversaries and have a limited application in a domestic concept.”
According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 58,126 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LFT test data from up to five days ago. An increase of 22% from 45,081 new daily cases last week.
The Covid case in Kettering for 10-14 year old schoolkids is now over 6,200 per 100k. That’s 1 in 16 children testing positive in the last week.
It’s another glaring indictment of the UK government’s complete lack of care for its own population, and its children in particular.
How high can the Covid rate get in Kettering? It's now over 6200 per 100k for 10-14 year olds. That's 1 in 16 children testing positive in the last week. (Growth is clearly slowing, thankfully). pic.twitter.com/napsY6AU58
— Colin Davis (@ProfColinDavis) September 29, 2021
This catastrophe was easily foreseeable from the beginning of the pandemic, as we pointed out in June 2020:
Hundreds of British school children could die of #COVID19 if the UK government gets it wrong on school reopenings. There could be an Aberfan type disaster in every community in Britain.
This is not a risk we needs to take. Broadcast lessons until a #coronavirus vaccine is ready
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) June 11, 2020
Young, low risk patients with ongoing symptoms of Covid-19 had signs of damage to multiple organs four months after initially being infected, a preprint study has suggested.
Initial data from 201 patients suggest that almost 70% had impairments in one or more organs four months after their initial symptoms of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Medrxiv Preprint: Multi-organ impairment in low-risk individuals with long COVID
This is how the BBC announces a near 88% vaccine breakthrough rate for Covid-19 hospitalizations in Wales: BBC: “Nearly 13% of hospital patients with confirmed Covid were unvaccinated.”
This is how the BBC announces a 67% vaccine breakthrough rate for new Covid cases in Wales:
BBC: “A third of people with confirmed Covid cases in Wales in the past week were unvaccinated.”
This is how the BBC announces a 63% vaccine breakthrough rate for the under 60’s in Wales:
BBC: “99% of people who tested positive for Covid in the past week in Wales were under 60. Of these, 37% were unvaccinated.”
The table below is taken from a Public Health Wales document with breakthrough information to 21st September 2021 which can be downloaded from here
From the chart above:
For ALL patients:
493 Fully vaccinated hospitalisations
79 Unvaccinated hospitalisations
Total Hospitalisations for all patients = 572 (excluding partially vaccinated and unknown)
That’s an 86% vaccine breakthrough rate
For OVER 60’s:
423 Fully vaccinated hospitalisations
33 Unvaccinated hospitalisations
Total Hospitalisations for over 60’s = 456 (excluding partially vaccinated and unknown)
That’s a 92% vaccine breakthrough rate
Even in the under 60’s, the majority of people in hospital for Covid-19 are fully vaccinated
And finally, in the PHW chart below, just look at the 95% vaccine breakthrough rate for new Covid cases in those over 60yrs in the middle of the chart. The majority of new covid cases in Wales in all age groups are also fully vaccinated
Note how many people with an “unknown” vaccination status have been crammed into the that last column in the chart. Do Public Health Wales really not know the vaccination status of a fifth of new patients?
In conclusion then, the vaccines are NOT giving 95% protection that was initially touted. Indeed, for some age groups, the vaccines actually have a 95% failure rate.
The latest UK PHE Technical Briefing 23 has just been published covering the period up to 12th September 2021. It shows that the vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta infections in the UK continues to increase. The vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta infections is now 27%, having increased by another 4% in just two weeks.
Technical Briefing 23, 1st February 2021 to 12th September 2021.
27% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|Technical Briefing 23|
|1st February 2021 - 12th September 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||593,572||155,252||257,357||157,400||27%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.28%||1.02%||265%||greater chance of dying|
Technical Briefing 22, 1st February 2021 to 29th August 2021.
23% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|Technical Briefing 22|
|1st February 2021 - 29th August 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||492,528||144,067||219,716||113,823||23%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.24%||0.96%||293%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 21, 1st February 2021 to 15th August 2021.
19% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 15th August 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||386,735||127,091||183,133||73,372||19%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.21%||0.93%||335%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 20, 1st February 2021 to 2nd August 2021
16% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 2nd August 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||300,010||98,722||151,054||47,008||16%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.17%||0.86%||411%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 19, 1st February 2021 to 19th July 2021
13% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 19th July 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||229,218||105,298||121,402||28,773||13%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.14%||0.78%||473%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 18, 1st February 2021 to 21st June [sic] 2021
9% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - *21st June 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||123,620||63,707||71,932||10,834||9%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.13%||1.09%||752%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 17, 1st February 2021 to 21st June 2021
8% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 21st June 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||92,029||79,336||53,822||7,235||8%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.08%||0.69%||745%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 16, 1st February 2021 to 14th June
7% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 14th June 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||60,624||53,177||35,521||4,087||7%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.10%||0.64%||565%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 15, 1st February 2021 to 7th June 2021
5% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 7th June 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||33,206||28,738||19,573||1,785||5%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.12%||0.67%||472%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 14, 1st February 2021 to 31st May 2021
3% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 31st May 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||9,427||7,744||5,172||267||3%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.21%||0.75%||252%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|