We predicted here and here that we would see a fresh Covid wave after October 19th, but even we didn’t expect Europe to ignite into a raging inferno within a couple of days. It is beginning to look like Europe may be the epicentre of the biggest global Covid wave yet this coming winter.
Morocco today banned flights to the UK, Germany and the Netherlands in response to the growing infection numbers.
What will happen with North America? It’s just coming out of a fairly major wave that peaked in September 2021. We should know within two weeks whether it has been spared a full-blown winter wave, but we doubt it. Relaxations in international travel over the summer will almost certainly mean a spillover from Europe to the US and Canada, which is exactly what happened in March 2020.
The UK Covid App ZOE is reporting 76,402 daily Covid cases today, a figure that is higher than the previously reported official peak of 68,192 daily Covid cases on the 8th January 2021.
The previously reported highest official figure for daily cases was 68,192, on January 8th 2021. The UK Covid-19 vaccine rollout, which has vaccinated 85% of the eligible population, had barely begun at that point. Note: The chart below is tracking the official UK government figures rather than the ZOE app figures.
The ZOE app is also reporting 1,002,466 symptomatic Covid cases in Britain, not far off the previous peak figure of 1,060,343 on January 11th 2021.
The official UK government dashboard figure is showing just under 50,000 daily cases, but all of the indicators are pointing in the wrong direction.
Britain is about to head into a winter Covid wave with more cases than ever before. Deaths from Covid are rising, and millions of children have been deliberately infected with Covid-19 after being sent to school where all mitigations were removed. There is presumably a plan here, but we are at a complete loss as to what the plan is, and the UK government aren’t telling.
Update 19th October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling:
Update 20th October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling:
Update 21st October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling:
Update 22nd October 2021 – daily cases are still spiralling – that’s a near 10% rise in FOUR DAYS:
With 223 deaths recorded in Britain on the 19th October 2021, it’s incredibly irresponsible for the UK government to allow Covid cases to rise this far.
223 deaths were recorded in a single day in Britain on 19th October 2021
“At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days. In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.
Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.”
Some 7% of Israel’s serious and critical COVID-19 cases were vaccinated with three shots of the coronavirus vaccine, according to data released Friday morning by the Israeli Health Ministry. Another 17% were vaccinated with two shots more than six months ago, according to the data.
“I cannot say that 7% is a lot,” Health Minister Director-General Prof. Nachman Ash told The Jerusalem Post. “The vaccine, even the third shot, does not work at 100%.” He said that there are always a small percentage of people who do not develop full immunity, such as those who are immunosuppressed.”
Nearly 44% of eligible Israelis have been vaccinated with a third “booster” dose of Covid-19 vaccine
We compared SARS CoV-2 infection by vaccination status from February 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021 in the Veterans Health Administration, covering 2.7% of the U.S. population. Vaccine protection declined by mid-August 2021, decreasing from 91.9% in March to 53.9%. Declines were greatest for the Janssen vaccine followed by PfizerBioNTech and Moderna. Patterns of breakthrough infection over time were consistent by age, despite rolling vaccine eligibility, implicating the Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection.
The prevalence of COVID-19 infections in England increased to around 1 in 60 people in the week ending Oct 9 2021, Britain’s Office for National Statistics said on Friday, reaching its highest level since January 2021. The ONS said that prevalence of infections had risen for its third straight week, having been at 1 in 70 people in the previous week.
The UK government Covid dashboard is showing all red:
The UK ZOE Covid app confirms that the infection figures are the highest since January – just as the vaccines were starting to be rolled out.
The UK government Covid dashboard shows that nearly 80% of the eligible population have been fully vaccinated:
UK infections in children have spiralled out of control following the removal of all mitigations in schools. It’s a deliberate and disastrous policy of mass infection of kids that will blight an entire future generation.
Today marks a milestone of sorts: the number of children under 14 who've tested positive for Covid in England just passed one million (1,003,787 to be precise). 🧵 pic.twitter.com/C58QwpvJrk
— Colin Davis (@ProfColinDavis) October 15, 2021
Latest ONS infection survey has just been released.
Cases continuing to go up in Wales & England. 1 in 60 now infected in England.
*8%* of secondary school age and *3%* of primary school age kids are infected.
When are we going to say *enough is enough* and protect kids? pic.twitter.com/FDqZ1D3k6w
— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) October 15, 2021
And finally, a Twitter thread that might go some way towards explaining these extraordinary UK numbers:
Let's bust some myths 🧵
1. Herd immunity is coming soon
This is Iran. There are 3 shades of green on this map. Starting at medium green, each person living in this province has been infected on average more than once. https://t.co/5gy485mZRB pic.twitter.com/A2LUpFjQY3
— Nancy Delagrave – COVID-STOP (@RougeMatisse) October 15, 2021
From Sept. 13 through Sept. 17, the most recent week of data available, of the total of 13,762 positive cases, 3,414 were of fully vaccinated people. There were 42 breakthrough hospitalizations out of a total of 1,000. And of the 121 COVID deaths during that time period, two of the deaths were of fully vaccinated people, Governor Murphy said.
New Jersey historical vaccine breakthrough information:
10th June 2021 report, 1,319 cases, 92 hospitalized, 14 deaths. Link
10th August 2021 report, 7,112 cases, 212 hospitalized, 50 deaths. Link
22nd September 2021 report, 22,226 cases, 457 hospitalized, 111 deaths. Link
6th October 2021 report, 30,267 cases, 629 hospitalized, 158 deaths. Link
The Covid-19 situation in Scotland seems to have deteriorated alarmingly since we last checked. For the most recent period reported, 78% of Covid-19 deaths were fully vaccinated, 64% of hospitalizations were fully vaccinated and 50% of new infections were fully vaccinated.
The information below comed from Public Health Scotland, and can be downloaded here. The key charts from the report are reproduced below. We have excluded the partially vaccinated from the results for clarity.
Covid-19 deaths in Scotland – 78% are fully vaccinated:
Covid-19 hospitalizations in Scotland – 64% are fully vaccinated:
New Covid-19 cases in Scotland – 50% are fully vaccinated:
Underlying data from Public Health Scotland
There’s a headline we never thought we would write.
A partially vaccinated 11-year-old tiger at the Brookfield Zoo has tested positive for COVID-19. The zoo received confirmation of Amur tiger Malena’s positive test this week after she started showing mild respiratory symptoms, including coughing and sneezing, late last week. Those symptoms are consistent with what other zoos have seen in big cats infected with COVID-19, according to a statement from the Chicago Zoological Society.
An update on the Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough rate in Iceland, which was at 70% of infections in early August. It has fallen slightly to 61% since then, but that still represents an astonishingly high risk for the fully vaccinated to contract the disease.
The new vaccine breakthrough rate for infections will certainly be distorted by the high incidence of Covid-19 infections in children who are not yet vaccinated and who represent an increasing percentage of infections across the globe.
Iceland is still seeing around 200 new Covid-19 cases a week.
August 3rd 2021:
We have investigated a nosocomial COVID-19 outbreak involving the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant among a highly vaccinated population. The attack rate among exposed individuals reached 23.3% in patients and 10.3% in staff, with 96.2% vaccination rate among exposed individuals. Moreover, several transmissions probably occurred between two individuals both wearing surgical masks, and in one instance using full PPE, including N-95 mask, face shield, gown and gloves.
Although reports of breakthrough infections are increasing, this communication emphasises several points. It challenges the assumption that high universal vaccination rates will lead to herd immunity and prevent COVID-19 outbreaks. This was probably true for the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus, but in the outbreak described here, 96.2% of the exposed population was vaccinated. Infection advanced rapidly (many cases became symptomatic within 2 days of exposure), and viral load was high.
According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 58,126 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LFT test data from up to five days ago. An increase of 22% from 45,081 new daily cases last week.
This is how the BBC announces a near 88% vaccine breakthrough rate for Covid-19 hospitalizations in Wales: BBC: “Nearly 13% of hospital patients with confirmed Covid were unvaccinated.”
This is how the BBC announces a 67% vaccine breakthrough rate for new Covid cases in Wales:
BBC: “A third of people with confirmed Covid cases in Wales in the past week were unvaccinated.”
This is how the BBC announces a 63% vaccine breakthrough rate for the under 60’s in Wales:
BBC: “99% of people who tested positive for Covid in the past week in Wales were under 60. Of these, 37% were unvaccinated.”
The table below is taken from a Public Health Wales document with breakthrough information to 21st September 2021 which can be downloaded from here
From the chart above:
For ALL patients:
493 Fully vaccinated hospitalisations
79 Unvaccinated hospitalisations
Total Hospitalisations for all patients = 572 (excluding partially vaccinated and unknown)
That’s an 86% vaccine breakthrough rate
For OVER 60’s:
423 Fully vaccinated hospitalisations
33 Unvaccinated hospitalisations
Total Hospitalisations for over 60’s = 456 (excluding partially vaccinated and unknown)
That’s a 92% vaccine breakthrough rate
Even in the under 60’s, the majority of people in hospital for Covid-19 are fully vaccinated
And finally, in the PHW chart below, just look at the 95% vaccine breakthrough rate for new Covid cases in those over 60yrs in the middle of the chart. The majority of new covid cases in Wales in all age groups are also fully vaccinated
Note how many people with an “unknown” vaccination status have been crammed into the that last column in the chart. Do Public Health Wales really not know the vaccination status of a fifth of new patients?
In conclusion then, the vaccines are NOT giving 95% protection that was initially touted. Indeed, for some age groups, the vaccines actually have a 95% failure rate.
Vaccine breakthrough data for Oregon state by Sars-CoV-2 variant up to 23rd September 2021.
The Delta variant is currently responsible for the majority of vaccine breakthrough cases in Oregon. Oregon state is currently sequencing about 5% of their case samples.
Vaccine breakthroughs in Oregon to 23rd September 2021. The cumulative total is now 22,879 breakthrough cases.
|23rd Sept 2021|
|Lineage||Number of Vaccine|
|Weekly Total of all VB cases||Weekly Total of all VB cases||2778||146|
Vaccine breakthroughs in Oregon to 16 September 2021. The cumulative total is now 19,549 breakthrough cases.
|16th Sept 2021|
|Lineage||Number of Vaccine|
|Weekly Total of all VB cases||Weekly Total of all VB cases||2632||-242|
Vaccine breakthroughs in Oregon to 09 September 2021. The cumulative total is now 16,417 breakthrough cases.
|9th Sept 2021|
|Lineage||Number of Vaccine
|Weekly Total of all VB cases||Weekly Total of all VB cases||2874|
Source: Oregon Vaccine Breakthrough file