“At the country-level, there appears to be no discernable relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days. In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.
Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal. Both countries have over 75% of their population fully vaccinated and have more COVID-19 cases per 1 million people than countries such as Vietnam and South Africa that have around 10% of their population fully vaccinated.”
We compared SARS CoV-2 infection by vaccination status from February 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021 in the Veterans Health Administration, covering 2.7% of the U.S. population. Vaccine protection declined by mid-August 2021, decreasing from 91.9% in March to 53.9%. Declines were greatest for the Janssen vaccine followed by PfizerBioNTech and Moderna. Patterns of breakthrough infection over time were consistent by age, despite rolling vaccine eligibility, implicating the Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection.
The prevalence of COVID-19 infections in England increased to around 1 in 60 people in the week ending Oct 9 2021, Britain’s Office for National Statistics said on Friday, reaching its highest level since January 2021. The ONS said that prevalence of infections had risen for its third straight week, having been at 1 in 70 people in the previous week.
The UK government Covid dashboard is showing all red:
The UK ZOE Covid app confirms that the infection figures are the highest since January – just as the vaccines were starting to be rolled out.
The UK government Covid dashboard shows that nearly 80% of the eligible population have been fully vaccinated:
UK infections in children have spiralled out of control following the removal of all mitigations in schools. It’s a deliberate and disastrous policy of mass infection of kids that will blight an entire future generation.
Today marks a milestone of sorts: the number of children under 14 who've tested positive for Covid in England just passed one million (1,003,787 to be precise). 🧵 pic.twitter.com/C58QwpvJrk
— Colin Davis (@ProfColinDavis) October 15, 2021
Latest ONS infection survey has just been released.
Cases continuing to go up in Wales & England. 1 in 60 now infected in England.
*8%* of secondary school age and *3%* of primary school age kids are infected.
When are we going to say *enough is enough* and protect kids? pic.twitter.com/FDqZ1D3k6w
— Prof. Christina Pagel (@chrischirp) October 15, 2021
And finally, a Twitter thread that might go some way towards explaining these extraordinary UK numbers:
Let's bust some myths 🧵
1. Herd immunity is coming soon
This is Iran. There are 3 shades of green on this map. Starting at medium green, each person living in this province has been infected on average more than once. https://t.co/5gy485mZRB pic.twitter.com/A2LUpFjQY3
— Nancy Delagrave – COVID-STOP (@RougeMatisse) October 15, 2021
The UK government approach – backed by its scientists – was to try to manage the situation and in effect achieve herd immunity by infection, it said. This led to a delay in introducing the first lockdown, costing lives.
Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and our prediction of the outcome of the policy
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) March 15, 2020
Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and ignores warnings from Italian doctors about the severity of the coronavirus
Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock, Patrick Vallance, Chris Whitty.
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) March 15, 2020
Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, March 13th 2020 – warning of a catastrophe in UK schools if they are left open. This is another lesson still not learned. Millions of British schoolchildren have been infected by Covid-19 in UK schools in 2021, with no mitigations allowed.
In an ongoing attempt to impose herd immunity, defenceless British kids are being told to fight a BSL4 pathogen in classrooms with no protection, mitigations, bubbles or vaccines. It’s homicidal insanity, and by far the biggest scandal of this pandemic.
UK: Mass gatherings WILL be banned from next weekend in dramatic government U-turn.
Now close the schools. Creating "Herd Immunity" is NOT a defence in a court of law for crimes against humanity.https://t.co/NgthAGUY8S
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) March 13, 2020
What we don’t want or need is another government apology or a public inquiry in a year’s time after millions more lives have been wrecked by this virus. We need preventative action, and we need it NOW.
We have already posted our prediction for the start of the next global Covid-19 wave here, and the October 23rd date we mentioned as being the start of the next wave also seems to be close to an inflexion point for global Covid deaths too. In 2020, the global death rate started to accelerate from October 19th. The next two weeks will be crucial in determining how severe Covid-19 will be this winter.
Our forecast is for the next global wave to start on or around 23rd October 2021:
The inflexion point for an increase in global deaths was on the 19th October 2020. Will vaccines and herd immunity help reduce the size of the next winter wave?
Below is the interactive OurworldinData chart for global biweekly deaths.
You can see clearly that the first global Covid wave from October 2020 to February 2021 was larger than the second Covid wave from February to June 2021. The global cases chart shows a collapsed first peak due to limited recording over the winter holidays. Cases may not have been recorded in that period, but deaths, of course, were, giving an indication of just how large the first Covid-19 wave really was.
Below is the interactive chart for global biweekly cases, with a trough expected around 23rd October 2021. Note the collapsed peak of the first wave due to the lack of recording over the winter holidays.
A visualization of what the first global peak in Covid cases would probably have looked like were it not for the lapse in recording from Thanksgiving 2020 through New Year of 2021.
Sadly, we don’t think that the three declining global peaks we have seen so far represent a trend that will continue into this coming winter of 2021. We should be able to tell by mid-November 2021 just how severe the next global Covid winter wave will be, and we will update Coronaheadsup.com in a new post around that time.
12th October 2021: An early indication from Britain of where we are headed?
Quick reaction to today’s weekly deaths data in this thread from @ActuaryByDay. Deaths remain unusually high again this week, as illustrated here.
— COVID-19 Actuaries Response Group (@COVID19actuary) October 12, 2021
Canadian military leaders saw the pandemic as a unique opportunity to test out propaganda techniques on an unsuspecting public, a newly released Canadian Forces report concludes. The federal government never asked for the so-called information operations campaign, nor did cabinet authorize the initiative developed during the COVID-19 pandemic by the Canadian Joint Operations Command, then headed by Lt.-Gen. Mike Rouleau.
But military commanders believed they didn’t need to get approval from higher authorities to develop and proceed with their plan, retired Maj.-Gen. Daniel Gosselin, who was brought in to investigate the scheme, concluded in his report.
The propaganda plan was developed and put in place in April 2020 even though the Canadian Forces had already acknowledged that “information operations and targeting policies and doctrines are aimed at adversaries and have a limited application in a domestic concept.”
The Covid case in Kettering for 10-14 year old schoolkids is now over 6,200 per 100k. That’s 1 in 16 children testing positive in the last week.
It’s another glaring indictment of the UK government’s complete lack of care for its own population, and its children in particular.
How high can the Covid rate get in Kettering? It's now over 6200 per 100k for 10-14 year olds. That's 1 in 16 children testing positive in the last week. (Growth is clearly slowing, thankfully). pic.twitter.com/napsY6AU58
— Colin Davis (@ProfColinDavis) September 29, 2021
This catastrophe was easily foreseeable from the beginning of the pandemic, as we pointed out in June 2020:
Hundreds of British school children could die of #COVID19 if the UK government gets it wrong on school reopenings. There could be an Aberfan type disaster in every community in Britain.
This is not a risk we needs to take. Broadcast lessons until a #coronavirus vaccine is ready
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) June 11, 2020
The latest UK PHE Technical Briefing 23 has just been published covering the period up to 12th September 2021. It shows that the vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta infections in the UK continues to increase. The vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta infections is now 27%, having increased by another 4% in just two weeks.
Technical Briefing 23, 1st February 2021 to 12th September 2021.
27% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|Technical Briefing 23|
|1st February 2021 - 12th September 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||593,572||155,252||257,357||157,400||27%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.28%||1.02%||265%||greater chance of dying|
Technical Briefing 22, 1st February 2021 to 29th August 2021.
23% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|Technical Briefing 22|
|1st February 2021 - 29th August 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||492,528||144,067||219,716||113,823||23%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.24%||0.96%||293%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 21, 1st February 2021 to 15th August 2021.
19% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 15th August 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||386,735||127,091||183,133||73,372||19%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.21%||0.93%||335%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 20, 1st February 2021 to 2nd August 2021
16% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 2nd August 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||300,010||98,722||151,054||47,008||16%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.17%||0.86%||411%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 19, 1st February 2021 to 19th July 2021
13% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 19th July 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||229,218||105,298||121,402||28,773||13%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.14%||0.78%||473%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 18, 1st February 2021 to 21st June [sic] 2021
9% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - *21st June 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||123,620||63,707||71,932||10,834||9%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.13%||1.09%||752%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 17, 1st February 2021 to 21st June 2021
8% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 21st June 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||92,029||79,336||53,822||7,235||8%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.08%||0.69%||745%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 16, 1st February 2021 to 14th June
7% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 14th June 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||60,624||53,177||35,521||4,087||7%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.10%||0.64%||565%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 15, 1st February 2021 to 7th June 2021
5% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 7th June 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||33,206||28,738||19,573||1,785||5%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.12%||0.67%||472%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
Technical Briefing 14, 1st February 2021 to 31st May 2021
3% vaccine breakthrough rate for Delta variant
|1st February 2021 - 31st May 2021||Total cases||Cases in last 28 days||Unvaccinated||Vaccinated with 2 doses|
|Delta cases||9,427||7,744||5,172||267||3%||vaccine breakthrough|
|Percentage||0.21%||0.75%||252%||greater chance of dying if fully vaccinated|
The UK has announced its plans to keep Covid-19 at bay this coming winter.
Here is Plan A (it’s basically the status quo):
* Building our defences through pharmaceutical interventions: vaccines, antivirals and disease modifying therapeutics.
* Identifying and isolating positive cases to limit transmission: Test, Trace and Isolate.
* Supporting the NHS and social care: managing pressures and recovering services.
* Advising people on how to protect themselves and others: clear guidance and communications.
* Pursuing an international approach: helping to vaccinate the world and managing risks at the border.
If Plan A doesn’t work, there is a Plan B:
* Communicating clearly and urgently to the public that the level of risk has increased, and with it the need to behave more cautiously.
* Introducing mandatory vaccine-only COVID-status certification in certain settings.
* Legally mandating face coverings in certain settings.
* You may be asked to work from home
And if Plan B doesn’t keep the dragons at bay, there’s always Plan C. It’s not explicitly mentioned, but it’s another lockdown.
Well, it’s not quite what we had in mind, it’s detention material at best, but, let’s move on shall we?
The World Health Organization has thrown in the towel and surrendered to Covid. The WHO have finally realised that Covid-19 vaccines aren’t going to save our asses, and they are now recommending that governments around the world learn to live with the virus. Yes, that’ll be the same virus that has already killed millions, disabled tens of millions, and infected hundreds of millions. Sars-CoV-2 is apparently something we can learn to live with though, just like the ebola virus, or polio, or smallpox, or the bubonic plague.
Welcome to the new normal!
Dr Hans Kluge: “I think it brings us to the point that the aim of a vaccination is first and foremost to prevent more serious disease, and that’s mortality. If we consider that Covid will continue to mutate and remain with us, the way influenza is, then we should anticipate how to gradually adapt our vaccination strategy to endemic transmission and gather really precious knowledge about the impact of additional jabs,” he added.
The Daily Mail has gone into meltdown over this one: “Covid vaccines won’t end pandemic and officials must now ‘gradually adapt strategy’ to cope with inevitable spread of virus, World Health Organization official warns“
** Just to be clear, there will be NO mild “endemic” phase of Sars-CoV-2. Throwing in the towel now will condemn hundreds of millions to die because we haven’t got the backbone to make the sacrifices necessary. **
Of the 9,253 breakthrough infections, 375 people have been admitted to hospital within 14 days of a positive PCR test for Covid-19. 57 deaths have been recorded within 30 days of a breakthrough infection detected via PCR test. SSI’s data also gives the percentage of breakthrough infections amongst all infections during the same period as 4.9 percent, but somewhat higher at 20% for the month of August alone.
As of August 31st, the proportion of breakthrough infections amongst fully vaccinated people is therefore 0.23 percent for the entire period from December 2020 – August 31st 2021.
“Overall, the committee is of the opinion that the benefits from vaccination are marginally greater than the potential known harms but acknowledges that there is considerable uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the potential harms. The margin of benefit, based primarily on a health perspective, is considered too small to support advice on a universal programme of vaccination of otherwise healthy 12 to 15-year-old children at this time. As longer-term data on potential adverse reactions accrue, greater certainty may allow for a reconsideration of the benefits and harms. Such data may not be available for several months.”
“The available data indicate that the clinical manifestations of myocarditis following vaccination are typically self-limiting and resolves within a short time. However, the clinical picture is atypical and the medium to long-term (months to years) prognosis, including the possibility of persistence of tissue damage resulting from inflammation, is currently uncertain as sufficient follow-up time has not yet occurred.”
Downing Street has denied it has set any “acceptable level” of Covid deaths but one adviser, who has been close to the UK Government since coronavirus struck 18 months ago, told inews that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had privately accepted that there would be at least a further 30,000 deaths in the UK over the next year, and that the Prime Minister would “only consider imposing further restrictions if that figure looked like it could rise above 50,000”.
Perhaps someone should go and wake Boris Johnson up, because the UK is already nearing 40,000 deaths a year and the figure is rising. It’s summer, and the kids are still off school. You can probably work out the rest…
UK Covid figures, 28th August 2021:
Iceland has vaccinated 76% of its population, but for several months the majority of new Covid infections have been amongst the fully vaccinated. Now, in a stunning turn U-turn, Iceland’s chief epidemiologist has declared that Iceland should pursue a new policy of herd immunity through Covid infection – the very same policy that vaccines were designed to prevent.
Herd immunity must be achieved by transmitting the virus
The epidemiologist Þórólfur Guðnason believes that it is now necessary to try to achieve herd immunity to the coronary virus by letting it continue, but to try to prevent serious illness by protecting vulnerable groups. He says the goal at this point cannot be to eradicate the virus from society.
One and a half months after the abolition of all domestic [restrictions], a record number of people have been diagnosed infected in recent weeks, despite the fact that the majority of the population has been vaccinated.
Þórólfur Guðnason said in Sprengisandur in Bylgjan this morning that it is disappointing that herd immunity has not been achieved with vaccination. He says that only one other way is able to achieve herd immunity, to allow the virus to spread throughout the community.
Some need to be revaccinated
Þórólfur says that the priority now is to give booster doses to those who have responded poorly to vaccination. “We need to try to vaccinate and better protect those who are vulnerable, but let us tolerate the infection,” he said.
“I think it is quite clear that Janssen’s (Johnson and Johnson vaccine) defence is weaker than that of other vaccines,” says Þórólfur. He says it is a priority to give those who received the Jansen vaccine a booster dose. Then, for example, teachers and the elderly need to be given a booster dose as soon as possible.
“It is not a priority now to vaccinate everyone with the third dose, as we also need to think: Maybe we should get a new variant? Do we need to be vaccinated with another vaccine? ”He says. Þórólfur says that the fight against the virus will be characterized by such uncertainty.
Will not suggest hard action
“We need to somehow navigate this way, and we are now in this, not to get too many serious illnesses so that the hospital system does not collapse, but still try to achieve this herd immunity by letting the virus somehow run.”
Þórólfur believes that the most important action now is to strengthen the hospital system and enable Landspítali to accept more people who need hospitalization.
He says the situation at Landspítali is not good, even though no emergency call has been received from there. “I do not think we have reached the point where we need to take tough action,” he said.
However, he says we need to be ready to take action if we are to see a lot of seriously infected people.
Þórólfur says that there will be discussions with specialists and those who work at Landspítali about improvements at the hospital. He does not intend to comment in detail on what needs to be done for the hospital to meet other demand.
Visir.is article (In Icelandic)
Iceland has continued to see the majority of Covid infections in fully vaccinated people: