We predicted here and here that we would see a fresh Covid wave after October 19th, but even we didn’t expect Europe to ignite into a raging inferno within a couple of days. It is beginning to look like Europe may be the epicentre of the biggest global Covid wave yet this coming winter.
Morocco today banned flights to the UK, Germany and the Netherlands in response to the growing infection numbers.
What will happen with North America? It’s just coming out of a fairly major wave that peaked in September 2021. We should know within two weeks whether it has been spared a full-blown winter wave, but we doubt it. Relaxations in international travel over the summer will almost certainly mean a spillover from Europe to the US and Canada, which is exactly what happened in March 2020.
The UK government approach – backed by its scientists – was to try to manage the situation and in effect achieve herd immunity by infection, it said. This led to a delay in introducing the first lockdown, costing lives.
Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and our prediction of the outcome of the policy
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) March 15, 2020
Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and ignores warnings from Italian doctors about the severity of the coronavirus
Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock, Patrick Vallance, Chris Whitty.
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) March 15, 2020
Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, March 13th 2020 – warning of a catastrophe in UK schools if they are left open. This is another lesson still not learned. Millions of British schoolchildren have been infected by Covid-19 in UK schools in 2021, with no mitigations allowed.
In an ongoing attempt to impose herd immunity, defenceless British kids are being told to fight a BSL4 pathogen in classrooms with no protection, mitigations, bubbles or vaccines. It’s homicidal insanity, and by far the biggest scandal of this pandemic.
UK: Mass gatherings WILL be banned from next weekend in dramatic government U-turn.
Now close the schools. Creating "Herd Immunity" is NOT a defence in a court of law for crimes against humanity.https://t.co/NgthAGUY8S
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) March 13, 2020
What we don’t want or need is another government apology or a public inquiry in a year’s time after millions more lives have been wrecked by this virus. We need preventative action, and we need it NOW.
We have investigated a nosocomial COVID-19 outbreak involving the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant among a highly vaccinated population. The attack rate among exposed individuals reached 23.3% in patients and 10.3% in staff, with 96.2% vaccination rate among exposed individuals. Moreover, several transmissions probably occurred between two individuals both wearing surgical masks, and in one instance using full PPE, including N-95 mask, face shield, gown and gloves.
Although reports of breakthrough infections are increasing, this communication emphasises several points. It challenges the assumption that high universal vaccination rates will lead to herd immunity and prevent COVID-19 outbreaks. This was probably true for the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus, but in the outbreak described here, 96.2% of the exposed population was vaccinated. Infection advanced rapidly (many cases became symptomatic within 2 days of exposure), and viral load was high.
According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 58,126 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LFT test data from up to five days ago. An increase of 22% from 45,081 new daily cases last week.
It is still risky to have mink breeding in Denmark in 2020. This is the assessment from Denmark’s SSI, the Statens Serum Institut.
In an email response to the parliamentary parties, which TV 2 has seen, it appears that SSI still stands by the previous risk assessment , which they broadcast on 14 June this year.
It stated that “keeping mink in Denmark after 2021 may entail a health risk for people of unknown size”, and it is thus this health risk which, SSI believes, is still present in mink breeding.
The email states that “the conclusions of the health professional assessment of the risk to human health in the event of a resumption of mink keeping after 2021 of 14 June 2021 remain valid.”
TV2nord report (In Danish)
* * Thankfully someone in Europe still has their eye on the ball **
The Covid case in Kettering for 10-14 year old schoolkids is now over 6,200 per 100k. That’s 1 in 16 children testing positive in the last week.
It’s another glaring indictment of the UK government’s complete lack of care for its own population, and its children in particular.
How high can the Covid rate get in Kettering? It's now over 6200 per 100k for 10-14 year olds. That's 1 in 16 children testing positive in the last week. (Growth is clearly slowing, thankfully). pic.twitter.com/napsY6AU58
— Colin Davis (@ProfColinDavis) September 29, 2021
This catastrophe was easily foreseeable from the beginning of the pandemic, as we pointed out in June 2020:
Hundreds of British school children could die of #COVID19 if the UK government gets it wrong on school reopenings. There could be an Aberfan type disaster in every community in Britain.
This is not a risk we needs to take. Broadcast lessons until a #coronavirus vaccine is ready
— Corona Heads Up (@CoronaHeadsUp) June 11, 2020
Cornell University, which has a population of around 40,000 and a 95% Covid-19 vaccination rate, was declared a “yellow zone” after their first week of classes because 322 people there tested positive for the coronavirus during the opening “surveillance testing.”
During the first week of classes this year, 95% of those tested had both COVID shots. However, last year during the same period, before the rollout of the experimental medical products, five times fewer positive coronavirus cases were recorded.
A man who completed 21 days of mandatory quarantine upon returning to China from overseas has been identified as the likely source of a new Covid outbreak. The man underwent 14 days of compulsory hotel quarantine, another 7 days in centralized quarantine and then a further week of health monitoring. He had tested negative for the virus nine times during 21 days of quarantine, before testing positive 37 days after entering China.
Putian’s locally-transmitted epidemic mainly has two chains of transmission – the one relating to Putou Primary School and one relating to Xiesheng shoe-making factory. The total infections from the school increased to at least 15 and at least 10 other infections from the Xiesheng shoe-making factory as of press time.
Preliminary studies suggest the outbreak may be traced to father of a student at the school who recently returned to Putian from Singapore. The person surnamed Lin tested positive on September 10, 38 days after returning from Singapore on August 4, during which he took nine nucleic acid and serologic tests, which were all negative.
“Children have suffered significant harms from Covid-19. In just the past two months there have been over 2,300 hospitalisations of under 18s in England. There are an estimated 34,000 children living with long covid in the UK already, with 22,000 reporting significant impacts on their day to day activities, 7,000 of whom have had symptoms for more than a year. Up to one in seven of those infected are expected to have persisting symptoms at 12-15 weeks. Long Covid can be associated with multisystem disease in some children, including persistent cognitive symptoms. SARS-CoV-2 is a neurotrophic and pro-inflammatory virus with neuroinvasive potential that can infect the brain, with structural brain changes having been observed in adults, including those with mild infection. Allowing mass infection of children is therefore reckless. “
Schools are reopening and Government wants to pretend Covid is fixed. But this stance puts the lives of children, their families, and teaching staff at risk.
Even children and families with serious medical conditions that make them especially vulnerable to Covid are expected to return to school – without any protective measures. Government’s policy requires no contact tracing by schools, no bubbles, and tells families who are vulnerable to just “follow the same guidance as everyone else.”
Parents who are frightened of what this means for their kids or vulnerable family members face fines or prosecution if they keep their kids at home until schools are made safe. And some schools and local authorities are bullying families into deregistering children.
We don’t think this state of affairs is lawful – and it is certainly not right. We commissioned written legal advice from leading educational specialists Fiona Scolding QC and Yaaser Vanderman – and promised we would publish it. It can now be accessed here.
“We can’t control the spread of the virus. The virus is doing what it’s doing and we have to react to that”.
During the past two weeks, 7 residents of a care home near Zaventem in Belgium have died after having contracted the B.1.621 variant of coronavirus first identified in Colombia, South America. All those that have died at the care home had been fully vaccinated against coronavirus.
On 16th July, two coronavirus infections were confirmed at the Ter Burg care home. As soon as the first infections were confirmed those in charge at the home put the afflicted section under quarantine. A total of 20 residents tested positive. As measures had been taken the outbreak was contained in the section of the home where it had started.
Nevertheless, 7 of the 28 residents with advanced dementia have passed away. Some of these were in poor physical health to start with. One of them was terminally and another was being given palliative care. However, some of those that died were in relatively good physical health.
Interestingly, the UK PHE have just released a threat assessment for B.1.621, reprinted below, and there are some recent posts from their Twitter account.
This variant was blamed for the rapid growth in Colombia 🇨🇴 in June/July
(at that time Alpha was dominant, almost no Delta) pic.twitter.com/EXwut4WgqL
— Meaghan Kall (@kallmemeg) August 6, 2021
In a possibly related development, Belgium has decided to lift its ban on travel from countries with high levels of coronavirus infections
Dr Kobi Haviv, Herzog Hospital, Jerusalem: “95% of the severe patients are vaccinated”. “85-90% of the hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated people.” “The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out”
"95% of the severe patients are vaccinated".
"85-90% of the hospitalizations are in Fully vaccinated people."
"We are opening more and more COVID wards."
"The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out"
— Ran Israeli (@RanIsraeli) August 5, 2021
I’m an epidemiologist at a major medical research university. I had gone to a house party in Montgomery County. There were 15 adults there, all of us fully vaccinated. The next day, our host started to feel sick. The day after that, she tested positive for COVID-19. At this point, 11 of the 15 have tested positive for COVID.
"Learn to live with the virus" either means nothing, or it means, "Learn to be quiet about the unnecessary deaths of your loved ones, friends, and compatriots."
Ain't gonna happen.
— Dominic Minghella (@DMinghella) August 1, 2021
This 👆 👆 👆