Europe suddenly ablaze with Covid – it could be the biggest wave yet

We predicted here and here that we would see a fresh Covid wave after October 19th, but even we didn’t expect Europe to ignite into a raging inferno within a couple of days. It is beginning to look like Europe may be the epicentre of the biggest global Covid wave yet this coming winter. 

So much for an ‘endemic’ phase of Covid – large parts of Europe are seeing sudden huge increases in infections:


Morocco today banned flights to the UK, Germany and the Netherlands in response to the growing infection numbers.

What will happen with North America? It’s just coming out of a fairly major wave that peaked in September 2021. We should know within two weeks whether it has been spared a full-blown winter wave, but we doubt it. Relaxations in international travel over the summer will almost certainly mean a spillover from Europe to the US and Canada, which is exactly what happened in March 2020.



Winter is here. Three European nations see their highest ever Covid case rates

UK: start to pandemic “worst public health failure ever” – a failure that is still ongoing

The UK government approach – backed by its scientists – was to try to manage the situation and in effect achieve herd immunity by infection, it said. This led to a delay in introducing the first lockdown, costing lives.

BBC report

Full Parliamentary report here


Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and our prediction of the outcome of the policy

Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, 15th March 2020 – the UK promotes herd immunity and ignores warnings from Italian doctors about the severity of the coronavirus


Coronaheadsup Twitter feed, March 13th 2020 – warning of a catastrophe in UK schools if they are left open. This is another lesson still not learned. Millions of British schoolchildren have been infected by Covid-19 in UK schools in 2021, with no mitigations allowed.
In an ongoing attempt to impose herd immunity, defenceless British kids are being told to fight a BSL4 pathogen in classrooms with no protection, mitigations, bubbles or vaccines. It’s homicidal insanity, and by far the biggest scandal of this pandemic.

What we don’t want or need is another government apology or a public inquiry in a year’s time after millions more lives have been wrecked by this virus. We need preventative action, and we need it NOW.


Sars-CoV-2 – checkmate to the virus in four moves

Israel: Hospital acquired infections despite full PPE, N-95 mask, face shield, gown and gloves

We have investigated a nosocomial COVID-19 outbreak involving the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant among a highly vaccinated population. The attack rate among exposed individuals reached 23.3% in patients and 10.3% in staff, with 96.2% vaccination rate among exposed individuals. Moreover, several transmissions probably occurred between two individuals both wearing surgical masks, and in one instance using full PPE, including N-95 mask, face shield, gown and gloves.

Although reports of breakthrough infections are increasing, this communication emphasises several points. It challenges the assumption that high universal vaccination rates will lead to herd immunity and prevent COVID-19 outbreaks. This was probably true for the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus, but in the outbreak described here, 96.2% of the exposed population was vaccinated. Infection advanced rapidly (many cases became symptomatic within 2 days of exposure), and viral load was high. report: Nosocomial outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in a highly vaccinated population, Israel, July 2021




Photo by CDC on Unsplash

UK: Covid-19 up by 22% in one week, vaccine breakthroughs at 25% of new cases

According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 58,126 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LFT test data from up to five days ago.  An increase of 22% from 45,081 new daily cases last week.

Zoe Covid App website

Denmark: It is too dangerous to resume mink breeding in 2022

It is still risky to have mink breeding in Denmark in 2020. This is the assessment from Denmark’s SSI, the Statens Serum Institut.

In an email response to the parliamentary parties, which TV 2 has seen, it appears that SSI still stands by the previous risk assessment , which they broadcast on 14 June this year.

It stated that “keeping mink in Denmark after 2021 may entail a health risk for people of unknown size”, and it is thus this health risk which, SSI believes, is still present in mink breeding.

The email states that “the conclusions of the health professional assessment of the risk to human health in the event of a resumption of mink keeping after 2021 of 14 June 2021 remain valid.”

TV2nord report (In Danish)


* * Thankfully someone in Europe still has their eye on the ball **


Last year:

#Coronavirus infected mink spilled over 12 miles of road in Denmark

UK: Covid case rate in Kettering for 10-14 year olds is now 6,200 per 100K

The Covid case in Kettering for 10-14 year old schoolkids is now over 6,200 per 100k. That’s 1 in 16 children testing positive in the last week.

It’s another glaring indictment of the UK government’s complete lack of care for its own population, and its children in particular.



This catastrophe was easily foreseeable from the beginning of the pandemic, as we pointed out in June 2020:


Cornell University: 95% Covid vaccinated, 322 infections in one week

Cornell University, which has a population of around 40,000 and a 95% Covid-19 vaccination rate, was declared a “yellow zone” after their first week of classes because 322 people there tested positive for the coronavirus during the opening “surveillance testing.”  

During the first week of classes this year, 95% of those tested had both COVID shots. However, last year during the same period, before the rollout of the experimental medical products, five times fewer positive coronavirus cases were recorded. report



Image by Yaqub Shabazz from Pixabay

China: man tests positive after 3 weeks in quarantine and 9 negative Covid tests

A man who completed 21 days of mandatory quarantine upon returning to China from overseas has been identified as the likely source of a new Covid outbreak.  The man underwent 14 days of compulsory hotel quarantine, another 7 days in centralized quarantine and then a further week of health monitoring. He had tested negative for the virus nine times during 21 days of quarantine, before testing positive 37 days after entering China.

Putian’s locally-transmitted epidemic mainly has two chains of transmission – the one relating to Putou Primary School and one relating to Xiesheng shoe-making factory. The total infections from the school increased to at least 15 and at least 10 other infections from the Xiesheng shoe-making factory as of press time.

Preliminary studies suggest the outbreak may be traced to father of a student at the school who recently returned to Putian from Singapore. The person surnamed Lin tested positive on September 10, 38 days after returning from Singapore on August 4, during which he took nine nucleic acid and serologic tests, which were all negative. report





Photo by Nuno Alberto on Unsplash

BMJ: Allowing mass infection of children is reckless

“Children have suffered significant harms from Covid-19. In just the past two months there have been over 2,300 hospitalisations of under 18s in England. There are an estimated 34,000 children living with long covid in the UK already, with 22,000 reporting significant impacts on their day to day activities, 7,000 of whom have had symptoms for more than a year. Up to one in seven of those infected are expected to have persisting symptoms at 12-15 weeks. Long Covid can be associated with multisystem disease in some children, including persistent cognitive symptoms. SARS-CoV-2 is a neurotrophic and pro-inflammatory virus with neuroinvasive potential that can infect the brain, with structural brain changes having been observed in adults, including those with mild infection. Allowing mass infection of children is therefore reckless. “

BMJ Opinion Piece


See also: Education Secretary Gavin Williamson could be in breach of the law

Schools are reopening and Government wants to pretend Covid is fixed. But this stance puts the lives of children, their families, and teaching staff at risk.

Even children and families with serious medical conditions that make them especially vulnerable to Covid are expected to return to school – without any protective measures. Government’s policy requires no contact tracing by schools, no bubbles, and tells families who are vulnerable to just “follow the same guidance as everyone else.”

Parents who are frightened of what this means for their kids or vulnerable family members face fines or prosecution if they keep their kids at home until schools are made safe. And some schools and local authorities are bullying families into deregistering children.

We don’t think this state of affairs is lawful – and it is certainly not right. We commissioned written legal advice from leading educational specialists Fiona Scolding QC and Yaaser Vanderman – and promised we would publish it. It can now be accessed here.

Education Secretary Gavin Williamson could be in breach of the law


Britain surrenders to the coronavirus

“We can’t control the spread of the virus. The virus is doing what it’s doing and we have to react to that”.



Just yesterday…

Children to spearhead Britain’s winter offensive against the coronavirus

Belgium: 7 fully vaccinated care home residents die after contracting B.1.621 Mu variant first found in Colombia

During the past two weeks, 7 residents of a care home near Zaventem in Belgium have died after having contracted the B.1.621 variant of coronavirus first identified in Colombia, South America. All those that have died at the care home had been fully vaccinated against coronavirus.

On 16th July, two coronavirus infections were confirmed at the Ter Burg care home. As soon as the first infections were confirmed those in charge at the home put the afflicted section under quarantine. A total of 20 residents tested positive. As measures had been taken the outbreak was contained in the section of the home where it had started.

Nevertheless, 7 of the 28 residents with advanced dementia have passed away. Some of these were in poor physical health to start with. One of them was terminally and another was being given palliative care. However, some of those that died were in relatively good physical health. report

Interestingly, the UK PHE have just released a threat assessment for B.1.621, reprinted below, and there are some recent posts from their Twitter account.


UK PHE threat assessment for B.1.621



In a possibly related development, Belgium has decided to lift its ban on travel from countries with high levels of coronavirus infections


Preprint: Characterization of the emerging B.1.621 variant of interest of SARS-CoV-2

Israel: “85-90% of the hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated people”

Dr Kobi Haviv, Herzog Hospital, Jerusalem: “95% of the severe patients are vaccinated”. “85-90% of the hospitalizations are in fully vaccinated people.” “The effectiveness of the vaccine is waning/fading out”


Israel: 40% of new Covid cases are in children under 11yrs


Scotland: 70% of Covid deaths and 58% of hospitalizations are fully vaccinated



USA, Maryland: “I went to a party with 14 other vaccinated people; 11 of us got COVID”

I’m an epidemiologist at a major medical research university.  I had gone to a house party in Montgomery County. There were 15 adults there, all of us fully vaccinated. The next day, our host started to feel sick. The day after that, she tested positive for COVID-19. At this point, 11 of the 15 have tested positive for COVID.

Baltimore Sun report



Image by Bruce Emmerling from Pixabay

Dominic Minghella on “Learning to live with Covid”

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