“Based on this evidence, [bats] would have been hibernating at the time of the first human outbreak in the fall of 2019. Since this evidence is cumulative to the prior evidence from Dr. Shi that the bat host species for CoV-2 does not live in Hubei Province it will not be used to change the Bayesian analysis.”
Likelihood from prior state is unchanged following this evidence analysis: Zoonotic origin (0.2%) and laboratory origin (99.8%)
Research paper on ZenodoA Bayesian analysis concludes beyond a reasonable doubt that SARS-CoV-2 is not a natural zoonosis but instead is laboratory derived (Version 3). Quay MD PhD, Steven Carl. (2021, March 29).
