There are at least three factors for which Lombardy risks entering the red zone from next March 15th. First of all, the incidence : the threshold beyond which one automatically enters the range with the most stringent measures has been set at 250 weekly cases per 100 thousand inhabitants .
Among the provinces of Lombardy there is a lot of inhomogeneity: we pass from Brescia and Como, respectively to 580 and 300, to Milan, Bergamo, Lodi, Sondrio and Varese still below the threshold.
The second is the Rt index : last week it was just below 1.25, beyond which we enter the red zone. With the new increase in cases over the past few weeks, that value may already have been exceeded.
The third is the data on the pressure on hospitals and intensive care units employed. In some provinces, such as Brescia, it has already reached 90%.
History repeating itself?
Almost exactly one year to the day, on 8 March 2020, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expanded the quarantine to all of Lombardy and 14 other northern provinces, and on the following day to all of Italy, placing more than 60 million people in lockdown