“We conclude that circulation of smallpox, followed by worldwide smallpox vaccination, have previously protected human populations from monkeypox epidemics. We combined historical data on smallpox and monkeypox with mathematical modelling to estimate the basic reproduction number of monkeypox, and found that monkeypox has epidemic potential. This finding may explain the increasing number of monkeypox outbreak reports, resulting in endemic monkeypox in central African countries. Moreover, with declining immunity to orthopoxvirus species, monkeypox can pose an ever-increasing threat for health security.”
An excellent Twitter thread from Tom Wenseleers discussing this preprint and the Monkeypox threat:
"Assuming 85% smallpox vaccine efficacy against monkeypox, we calculated R0 for monkeypox to be 2.1 (1.5–2.7). We therefore postulate that monkeypox had epidemic potential in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the early 1980s." 🧵https://t.co/uVW2fkdaTg
See phylogeny below: closest ancestor of current lineage causing an international outbreak (top right) is a strain sequenced from the UK in 2018, which was linked to travel to Nigeria, where monkeypox is endemic & often spills over from rodent reservoirs.https://t.co/Kqnu2i63ibpic.twitter.com/WTqht8AEsn
15 cases of Monkeypox have been confirmed in Quebec.
Variole simienne : en date du 23 mai, 15 cas ont été confirmés au Québec. Pour en savoir plus sur cette infection, les symptômes et les moyens de transmission: https://t.co/y3a5YtyFeS
