Denmark’s SSI estimates that Omicron will become the dominant Covid-19 variant this week. An increasing number of infections of over 10,000 cases per day is expected.
The SSI estimates that omiCron will become the dominant covid-19 variant in the Capital Region as early as this week. At the same time, an increasing number of infections with over 10,000 daily cases is expected in a short time.
It should be noted that there are significant regional differences in development. Among other things, infection has been seen at major events that affect the infection rates. Therefore, it is more uncertain when omikron will become dominant in the rest of the country.
“An increasing spread of infection in society will entail a high risk of a secondary increase in the number of hospitalizations, especially among unvaccinated and vaccinated debilitated persons,” says SSI’s CEO Henrik Ullum.
Analyzes indicate that vaccines protect
Based on the new risk assessment, Henrik Ullum believes that it has become even more important to get as many people vaccinated as possible.
“We expect that both the 2nd and especially the 3rd booster dose will protect against serious diseases of the omicron. In addition, new studies from England indicate that the 3rd dose also provides protection against symptomatic infection. Therefore, a quick roll-out of the 3rd dose is absolutely crucial to curb both the spread of infection and not especially the serious course of events in the coming time, ”says Henrik Ullum.
Preliminary calculations only
The report also includes very preliminary model calculations for the possible development in the number of admissions under different conditions.
“It must be clearly emphasized that the model calculations are preliminary and will undergo ongoing internal and external validation and adjustment. When they are presented in their current form, it is due to the time-critical nature of the development ”, says Henrik Ullum.
Among other things, the models do not take into account the faster roll-out of vaccination with the 3rd dose that has been implemented.
In addition, the uncertainties are particularly about whether the omicron spreads quickly because it escapes immunity after the second bite, or whether it is also more contagious (combined effects).
Finally, there are uncertainties about the exact effect of the 3rd dose, and whether the omicron is smaller or as severe as Delta.
All of these uncertainties make it difficult to assess the future burden on healthcare with certainty.
The full SSI risk assessment for Omicron in Denmark can be downloaded here (in Danish)
Like Norway, Denmark has seen an explosion in Covid cases over the past two weeks, largely driven by the new Omicron variant. The new Covid wave is now nearly twice as high as the previous record wave in the winter of 2020
