UCL modelling shows vaccine efficacy against Covid-19 infection at just 1.5%

Astrazeneca, B.1.617.2, Coronavirus, Delta, England, Europe, Health, Infection, London, Moderna, Pfizer/Biontech, Science, Transmission, UK, Vaccine

Current estimates of the vaccination efficacy are: preventing infection: 1.5%, preventing transmission when infected: 85.5%, preventing serious illness when symptomatic: 60.7%, preventing fatality when seriously ill: 93.6%.  This means being vaccinated offers very little protection against becoming infected and potentially symptomatic; however, it reduces the subsequent probability becoming infectious or developing serious illness.

Current estimates of the vaccination efficacy are:

  1. preventing infection: 1.5% (CI -4.6 to 7.3)
  2. preventing transmission when infected: 85.5% (CI 83.3 to 87.4)
  3. preventing serious illness when symptomatic: 60.7% (CI 58.5 to 62.9)
  4. preventing fatality when seriously ill: 93.6% (CI 92.1 to 94.9)
  • This means being vaccinated offers very little protection against becoming infected and potentially symptomatic; however, it reduces the subsequent probability becoming infectious or developing serious illness.

 

UCL Long Term Forecasting of the Covid-19 Pandemic

 

 

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