Current estimates of the vaccination efficacy are: preventing infection: 1.5%, preventing transmission when infected: 85.5%, preventing serious illness when symptomatic: 60.7%, preventing fatality when seriously ill: 93.6%.  This means being vaccinated offers very little protection against becoming infected and potentially symptomatic; however, it reduces the subsequent probability becoming infectious or developing serious illness.

Current estimates of the vaccination efficacy are:

1. preventing infection: 1.5% (CI -4.6 to 7.3)
   
2. preventing transmission when infected: 85.5% (CI 83.3 to 87.4)
3. preventing serious illness when symptomatic: 60.7% (CI 58.5 to 62.9)
4. preventing fatality when seriously ill: 93.6% (CI 92.1 to 94.9)

• This means being vaccinated offers very little protection against becoming infected and potentially symptomatic; however, it reduces the subsequent probability becoming infectious or developing serious illness.

UCL Long Term Forecasting of the Covid-19 Pandemic

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