UK SAGE: Four scenarios for the evolution of the pandemic

Co-infection, Coronavirus, Deaths, England, Evolution, Health, Healthcare, Herd Immunity, Hospitalization, Infection, Lockdown, London, Northern Ireland, Omicron, Recombination, Reinfection, Scotland, Transmission, Treatment, UK, Vaccine, Vaccine Breakthrough, Variants, Wales

UK SAGE have recently published a document outlining four different scenarios for the evolution of the pandemic in Britain. The scenarios cover the next 12-18 months, and range from a reasonable best case scenario to the worst case scenario. The suicidal policy of herd immunity has finally been abandoned.

Here are the four scenarios: 2


The complete two-page publication for the four scenarios can be downloaded here.


SAGE have also slapped down the government for rushing to end Covid testing and other protective mitigations for the British population:


  • Removing access to free testing would make it harder for people to take this and other precautionary actions. It may also increase anxiety among those who have found testing reassuring after possible exposure, particularly those who are or live with someone who is clinically vulnerable. Increased ambiguity about a requirement to self-isolate upon testing positive will also disproportionately impact vulnerable sections of the population (medium confidence).
  • Some people may also take the removal of free and accessible testing as a signal that it is acceptable to attend workplaces/social gatherings while showing COVID-19 symptoms, as these become conflated with other symptoms of respiratory illness such as influenza. Various proactive measures could be considered to address the culture and impacts of “presenteeism” including encouraging individuals to work from home when unwell (where possible), providing adequate financial support (sick pay) for employees and providing effective incentives, advice and guidance for organisations and employers.”
  • Lifting of restrictions should be accompanied with clear and consistent messaging about the scientific rationale and continued benefit of protective behaviours to reduce transmission. Now may be an optimal time to shift messaging from central government to local public health, UKHSA and NHS agencies (high confidence). This could improve adherence but is dependent upon consistency across organisations, including central government.
  • Public messaging should make efforts to stress the different needs and risk appetites of others. This should help to improve understanding of the continued need and adoption of protective behaviours by different groups and reduce the risk of social tensions, abusive incidents and stigma towards minority groups.


SAGE 105 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 10 February 2022






** This post was originally published on February 13, 2022 **