UK: Predicting Sars-Cov-2 waves using repeating code snippets

We have been looking at the latest UK Covid chart overnight, and we think we may have spotted a repeating code snippet warning of an imminent new Covid wave for Britain.

What are “repeating code snippets”? It’s our theory that Sars-Cov-2 is acting in a repetitive way, and that these repetitive actions may be visible in the infection charts.

The most obvious repeating pattern used by Sars-Cov-2 are the regular waves seen in the global charts and that we have all heard about. We have looked at those previously.

This time though, we think we may have spotted a repeating code snippet in the UK charts warning of a potential new wave, so we are going to share it. We tried this earlier in the summer of 2021, and it worked then, so this is a second attempt.

This may or may not work, we honestly don’t know. Repeating code snippets are a work in hand, and repeating code patterns in national infection charts are harder to spot than global code patterns.

We have outlined in the chart below a code pattern from the past few days, and a pattern that looks remarkably similar from October/November 2020.

The reason for pointing this pattern out is because of what happened the last time it appeared – it preceded the winter wave of 2020, and was followed by a massive wave of infections.

 

We have already discussed, in an earlier post, our abhorrence at the deliberate wave of infections unleashed by the British government on its own population throughout the summer of 2021.

We wondered in that post whether the artificial wave they created in the summer would blunt the inevitable winter wave due afterwards (that was, after all, the idea behind the plan), but we’re not sure that Sars-Cov-2 ever agreed to cooperate with that plan. The virus may yet be back for its prearranged winter visit to Britain.

If we are right about the repeating code snippet though, then a new winter wave in the UK could be just days away from starting, along with the Covid waves now crashing over most of the rest of Europe.

 

The Interactive chart below should update if you refresh your page:

 

 

More in our Decoding Sars-Cov-2 series:

 

Image by Peggy und Marco Lachmann-Anke from Pixabay

Evidence of two global Covid waves in 2020, and estimating the pandemic start date

Global Covid waves have been easy to spot in 2021 with their distinctive sine wave pattern, but what about 2020, when testing was largely limited to those with symptoms until late into that year?

There seems to be evidence of two previous global waves of Sars-Cov-2 in 2020, and it may be possible to estimate a start date for the pandemic by simply rolling the 120 day global cases wave rate back to 2019.

Firstly, let’s take another look at the evidence of a regular global Covid wave rate in 2021. It’s about 120 days between the trough of each wave:

 

In our updated global cases wave chart below, you can see faint signs that the global wave pattern for Covid cases extended right through 2020, and possibly as far back as the start of the pandemic in 2019. There are now five waves showing, and a sixth global wave has just started.

 

The global deaths chart below shows clearer evidence of 5 global waves so far, with the sixth wave starting in October 2021. Note that the timing of the wave *peaks* for deaths or cases is far less important than the timing of the global *troughs* for confirmed cases.

If the wave timings are correct, it means that the very first Wuhan *peak* in Covid cases would have occurred between Christmas 2019 and New Year 2020, with the trough coming on the 29th of February 2020.

By rolling the global cases wave rate back even further though, we can estimate the start of the pandemic:

We estimate that the start of the pandemic was on or around the 1st November 2019, a date calculated by deducting 120 days from the 29th February 2020.

That would be just after the 2019 Military World Games ended in Wuhan

That is, of course, unless there were prior, unrecorded cases….

 

Update 6th November 2021:

This article in Science Magazine seems to agree with our estimation

“Consequently, the index case in Hubei likely contracted SARS-CoV-2 on or around 4 November 2019 (95% upper HPD: 15 October; 99% upper HPD: 7 October)”

Science Magazine: Timing the SARS-CoV-2 index case in Hubei province

 

More in our Decoding Sars-Cov-2 series:

 

 

 

Preprint: Molecular evidence for SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected since late summer 2019 in Lombardy

 

Decoding Sars-Cov-2: How are global Covid waves formed, and can we predict future waves?

Global Covid waves are formed by smaller continental waves combining to create the unique global sine wave pattern we have seen in 2021.

The chart below shows the global Covid wave pattern from 2021. Let’s take it apart and look at the constituent elements of each wave. We’ll be using a biweekly view for these charts as it smooths out a lot of the jitter and gives a clearer picture of wave direction.

 

The chart below shows the constituent elements of the three global Covid waves of 2020 and 2021. It shows which continents contributed to each wave.

We have included India in this chart as it was such a major factor in the second global wave. We have separated North America and South America as their respective waves are not linked, and we have excluded Africa from the chart as its recorded cases have been too low to make an impact on the global situation.

You can see from the above chart that two continents were largely responsible for the first major winter wave from October 2020 to February 2021. They were Europe and North America.

Both of the North American and European winter waves of October 2020 to February 2021 were largely blunted by national lockdowns, local lockdowns and lower case recording over the winter holidays. The first winter wave of 2020-2021 would have undoubtedly been the largest wave of the past year had it not been for those mitigating measures.

As we mentioned earlier, Asia, (notably India) was the chief contributor to the second global wave, from February 2021 to June 2021.

The third global wave from June 2021 to October 2021 largely consisted of cases from Asia, North America and Europe.

It’s already apparent that Europe will play a large role in the coming winter wave from October 2021 to February 2022, but which continents will accompany it?

Every other continent is currently on the downward slope from a wave, none have yet shown an inflexion point or upward curve in Covid cases indicating a new wave forming.

We have seen, however, increasing Covid activity in both China and Singapore this week, and news this morning of a sudden spike in Covid deaths in India attracted our attention, particularly as it seems to be occurring without a corresponding increase in Covid cases. The increase in Indian deaths also began close to the anniversary of last year’s global infection point for Covid deaths that happened on the 19th October 2020.

 

North America is a few weeks behind Asia in its exit slope. Its earlier than expected summer wave in 2021 has put it slightly out of sync with its previous waves. South America has yet to contribute to a global wave in any significant manner.

So, on the basis of the second chart above, it would seem that Europe and Asia would be the most likely contributors to a new global winter wave. A fresh wave in North America could begin within weeks though, perhaps as early as November 2021. A combination of waves from these three continents would be a repeat of the last wave. It could be the largest global wave of the pandemic so far as many of the mitigations used last year appear to have been abandoned.

In our next post, we will be trying to predict future Covid waves on a continental level and a national level by using repeating code snippets – the same method we used successfully in this post and in this post

 

Here is the interactive global biweekly case chart:

 

More in our Decoding Sars-Cov-2 series:

 

 

 

Image by Free-Photos from Pixabay

Sars-Cov-2 is on a 120 day global wave cycle. It may not be a natural entity.

Decoding Sars-Cov-2: The Sars-Cov-2 virus features a global timer, set parameters, sub-routines, coded warning flags and probably has a built-in expiry date. It is predictable, and it may also be hackable. It may not be a natural entity.

Sars-Cov-2 looks more like a computer virus every time we look at it.  Is it a natural entity, or has it been manufactured? Are these waves coincidental, or are they under the control of someone or something?

Firstly, let’s take a look at the timing of those global Covid waves again.

Does this look natural to you in any way?

We are going to be looking in detail at the extraordinary coding of this virus in another post, including the global timing you can see above, the set parameters, repeating sub-routines and warning flags, but below are a few examples that we have already covered in previous posts.

 

Global Timer & Repeating Routines: We predicted on the 11th October 2021 that the next global Covid wave trough would be between 19th October and 23rd October 2021, based on our observation of the global timer and the repeating sub-routines. The trough was actually on the 20th October 2021. See below

October 19th – 23rd could be crucial in determining how bad Covid-19 will be this winter

 

Global Timer: On the 3rd October 2021, we showed that global Covid waves were timed roughly 4 months apart. Our prediction of a trough on the 23rd October was out by 3 days because the waves are 120 days apart and not 4 months as we previously suspected. You can also see a baseline forming in the chart, a minimum and maximum number of Covid cases using clearly set parameters:

Is Covid-19 on a four monthly global wave cycle?

 

Repeating Patterns & Warning Flags: We predicted on 9th June 2021 that the UK would see a summer Covid wave based on a repeating pattern in the code, a red warning flag. The wave did occur, Covid case numbers increased until 23rd July 2021. The UK graph for the summer of 2021 is shown in the post. We see these warning flags in the code quite often.

UK: one week until B.1.617.2 Delta #coronavirus variant takes off

 

Set Parameters: We noted how Sars-Cov-2 has set parameters in a post on 27th April 2021. The parameters still seem to hold true:

Global: Sars-COV-2 – a virus that oscillates between killing 5,000 to 20,000 a day for an entire year?

 

So, from a coding point of view, is this a masterpiece, or the work of an amateur?

Actually, the quality of the coding reminds us of this 1970’s Atari game:

 

A higher level of sophistication is required to create the consistent global wave patterns seen in the charts above from the smaller, less obviously timed continental and national waves, but a decent supercomputer could probably crack it in, say, 5 minutes?

Finally, if this IS an unnatural process, we fully expect these patterns to change quite quickly…

 

Below is our recreation of the first global winter wave of 2020/2021, a wave that was broken in half by national lockdowns and other mitigations that were introduced in early November 2020.

 

More in our Decoding Sars-Cov-2 series:

 

Here’s the interactive chart that you can update with your refresh button:

 

 

Evidence of two global Covid waves in 2020, and estimating the pandemic start date

 

 

Is Covid-19 on a four monthly global wave cycle?

Sars-CoV-2 global attacks have come in regular four monthly waves in 2021. Will the next wave trough, or CovidMinimum, be on or around 23rd October 2021, with about 5.18 million biweekly infections? Place your bets!

We think that the first wave shown above, from October 2020 to February 2021, had a collapsed peak caused by lockdowns and a lack of reporting over the Thanksgiving, Christmas & winter holidays. The wave was probably at least as big, if not bigger, than the second wave from February to June 2021.

 

The winter peak for Covid cases in 2020/2021 would probably have looked something like this if case recording hadn’t been interrupted by national lockdowns and winter holidays:

 

Have a go yourself with the interactive chart below! The   button is pretty cool. To update it, press the date in the bottom right corner of the chart.

 

 

 

Sars-Cov-2 is on a 120 day global wave cycle. It may not be a natural entity.

 

 

Evidence of two global Covid waves in 2020, and estimating the pandemic start date

UK: one week until B.1.617.2 Delta #coronavirus variant takes off

9th June 2021: If the previous waves of Sars-CoV-2 in the UK are anything to go by, Britain is less than one week away from the B16172 Delta variant exploding into another full-blown national health crisis. The country’s current coronavirus case rate is roughly the same as it was on the 26th September 2020. Just five days later, on October 1st, the third wave of infections moved into a different gear entirely, swamping hospitals and causing thousands of deaths. 

It’s time to plan for the worst and hope for the best.

 

4th September 2021: This is what happened – exactly as predicted

 

More in our Decoding Sars-Cov-2 series:

 

 

 

Global: Sars-COV-2 – a virus that oscillates between killing 5,000 to 20,000 a day for an entire year?

How is this graph even possible? For more than one year the global death toll for Sars-Cov-2 has oscillated between ~5,000 deaths a day to ~20,000 deaths a day creating a pattern that is almost ECG like in its uniformity.  Answers on a postcard please, because we do not see anything natural about this graph.

Graph courtesy of OurWorldinData.org

 

More in our Decoding Sars-Cov-2 series:

 

 

 

WHO: the first substantial decline in global Covid cases in more than two months