Dominic Minghella on “Learning to live with Covid”

This  👆  👆  👆

 

UK SAGE Bombshell Report: The Long Term Evolution of Sars-CoV-2

Scenario One: A variant that causes severe disease in a greater proportion of the population than has occurred to date.  Scenario Two: A variant that evades current vaccines.  Scenario Three: Emergence of a drug resistant variant after anti-viral strategies.  Scenario Four: SARS-CoV-2 follows an evolutionary trajectory with decreased virulence.

 

Scenario One: A variant that causes severe disease in a greater proportion of the population than has occurred to date. For example, with similar morbidity/mortality to other zoonotic coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV (~10% case fatality) or MERS-CoV (~35% case fatality).

Likelihood of increased severity phenotype: Realistic possibility.

 

Scenario Two: A variant that evades current vaccines. This could be caused by: Antigenic ‘shift’: Natural recombination events that insert a different spike gene sequence (or partial sequence) from human CoVs MERS-CoV (highly unlikely due to the low frequency of MERS-CoV infections), or from currently circulating endemic human CoVs (more likely due to the prevalence of these viruses). This would recombine into the ‘body’ of SARS-CoV-2 that is capable of high replication in human cells. The consequence could be a virus that causes disease at a level similar to COVID-19 when it first emerged but against which our current battery of spike glycoprotein-based vaccines would not work. 

Likelihood: Realistic possibility.

 

Scenario Three: Emergence of a drug resistant variant after anti-viral strategies. This could be caused by: Emergence of new variants following the administration of directly acting antiviral therapies. As we begin to use directly acting antiviral drugs it is highly likely a variant will be selected that had resistance to individual agents. For example, drugs that target the viral 3C protease, drugs that target the polymerase, monoclonal antibodies that target the spike glycoprotein. If the drugs are used as a mono therapy, then resistant variants have a high probability of emerging. This may render all drugs in that category unusable.

Likelihood: Likely – unless the drugs are used correctly.

 

Scenario Four: SARS-CoV-2 follows an evolutionary trajectory with decreased virulence. This could be caused by: Variants arising with increased transmissibility but decreased pathogenesis/virulence as the virus becomes fully adapted to the human host becoming an endemic infection. Coupled with the likelihood of eventual high populations immunity the infection produces less disease. In other words, this virus will become like other human CoV that causes common colds, but with much less severe disease predominantly in the old or clinically vulnerable. 

Likelihood: Unlikely in the short term, realistic possibility in the long term.

 

Download the entire report here

GOV.UK SAGE Website Link

 

So what is Plan B if the vaccines fail with a new #coronavirus super-variant?

Kit Yates on “We have to learn to live with the virus”

Over to you Kirsty….

Kirsty Allsopp: We have to learn to live with Covid

English Freedom Day: Lions led by Zombies

A short reminder of what happened after “Freedom Day” was announced in the Czech Republic on July 2nd 2020:

 

 Covid-19 cases after “Freedom Day” in the Czech Republic in 2020:

 Covid-19 deaths after “Freedom Day” in the Czech Republic in July 2020:

English Freedom Day – Lions led by Zombies.

 

UK: with 2 million Long Covid cases and 20,000 new coronavirus infections every day, is this really the right time to lift restrictions?

There is something deeply surreal about Britain’s current Covid-19 policy right now. The UK has one of the fastest rising coronavirus case rates in the world. It has the largest Delta variant case load in Europe, and it has recently confessed to having more than 2 million Long-Covid patients. Yet, despite this, it still intends to lift all Covid restrictions within days and declare the pandemic over in Britain.

In a further twist today, the UK government is now also reportedly considering abandoning the publication of Covid infection and death rates in future, presumably to hide the level of carnage brought about by such absurd policymaking.

Britain, through lazy indecision, has allowed itself to become a veritable breeding ground for dangerous new Sars-CoV-2 variants including B.1.1.7 and B.1.617.2. It has then allowed those variants to seed across the globe through its porous border system, causing untold death and misery for millions. That is neither acceptable, responsible or tolerable in today’s interconnected world.

If no effort is made by one country to control the Covid-19 virus, then all other countries with fail along with it. For one country to abandon the fight unilaterally against the virus is effectively condemning every country on Earth to an endless cycle of ever more dangerous strains of coronavirus from which many will die and many more will never recover.

 

—– UK Gov Long Covid Study —-

UK.GOV Long Covid report

 

—- UK coronavirus cases —-

 

— Total cases v Long Covid —

2 Million cases of Long Covid. 4.7 million confirmed coronavirus cases in Britain. That means that nearly half of all those infected since the beginning of the pandemic could have Long Covid. 

 

 

 

Animated gif courtesy of Giphy.com

Preprint: “Antigenic minimalism as an emerging evolutionary strategy for #coronavirus to evade immune responses”

“..we generated clinically annotated SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences and identified deletions within this NTD antigenic supersite in a patient with vaccine breakthrough infection (Δ156-164) and other deletions from unvaccinated severe COVID-19 patients that could represent emerging deletion-prone regions. Overall, the expanding repertoire of NTD deletions throughout the pandemic and their association with case surges and vaccine breakthrough infections point to antigenic minimalism as an emerging evolutionary strategy for SARS-CoV-2 to evade immune responses.”

Medrxiv Preprint

 

 

 

Image by Robert Balog from Pixabay

Brazil: new strain of #coronavirus with L452R mutation found in São Paulo interior named P.4

The Brazilian Society of Virology (SBV) yesterday, May 25, confirmed the identification of a new Brazilian coronavirus strain, denominated P4. According to the SBV, the variant has the L452R mutation in the S protein of SARS-CoV-2. According to the SBV, the new variant has been circulating in the region of the São Paulo cities of Mococa, Caconde, and Itapira (close to the border with Minas Gerais), and also in the region of Porto Ferreira .

The L452R mutation in the S protein of SARS-CoV-2 is found in all three sub-lineages of the Indian variant B.1.617 –  B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3. There is still no data on whether the new P.4 strain is more transmissible or more lethal than other strains.

The variant of the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus was detected for the first time in a sample taken in the municipality of Mococa, which is located in the northeast of the state of Sao Paulo.

In addition to Mococa, coronavirus cases caused by the P.4 strain have been registered in municipalities such as Cesário Lange, Porto Ferreira, Santa Cruz das Palmeiras, Tambaú, Itirapina, Rio Claro, Araras, Sumaré, Caconde, Iperó, Capão Bonito , São Miguel Arcanjo, Itapetininga y Descalvado , all located in Sao Paulo.

RioTimesOnline.com report

 

UK: #coronavirus variant B.1.617.2 within hours of outcompeting B.1.1.7 in Britain

 

India: ‘Double mutant’ #coronavirus strain named B.1.617

 

Image by Andrea Meakin from Pixabay

Africa: Tanzania/Angola #coronavirus variant carries E484K & H655Y mutations

Forbes are carrying an interesting about the recently discovered coronavirus variant found in Tanzania, Africa in travellers arriving from Angola.  The variant is from “From An Entirely New Branch Of SARS-CoV-2”, and carries Spike mutations E484K, P681H, T478R, Q957H, H655Y, D215G, D80Y. L210N, W258L, R246I.  “An additional 18 amino acid changes occur in proteins outside the spike protein. These include 14 in the orf1ab proteins that specify the replication complex. “

“This is a remarkable illustration of convergent evolution,” say’s Forbes

Forbes article: New Tanzanian Variant Detected In Angola From An Entirely New Branch Of SARS-CoV-2