Europe: Another huge Covid wave is building right across the continent

Almost every country in Europe is now seeing a big increase in Covid cases. In many instances, the waves are already higher than the December 2021 wave.

The chart above shows the situation in Europe at the moment. The pandemic seems to have shifted into an entirely different gear. 

The chart below shows a comparison with previous Covid waves:

 

The current wave in Europe is not entirely made up of Omicron cases either. In some countries, more than 50% of cases are still Delta variant.

 

Last year’s winter wave of 2020/2021 showed signs of having had a double peak, one in November/December 2020, the other in January 2021, with a further lift in cases in March 2021, but all of them were on a much smaller scale than this new winter wave:

 

Under the circumstances, removing all Covid mitigations now, as the UK is proposing to do, would be completely insane.

 

So what can we do? Well, we can do what we should have been doing since February 2020!
  • FREE masks – FFP2 minimum
  • FREE testing
  • FREE ventilation installations, particularly schools and shops
  • Full sick pay for self-isolation of up to 14 days
  • Smaller classrooms located across communities to protect our kids
  • Working from home wherever possible
  • Less contact, reducing unnecessary interactions
  • Less meetings, less flights, less travel, less cruises, less holidays
  • Less festivals, less concerts, less sports events, less garden parties
  • Eat a better diet
  • Support each other
  • Stop hoping big pharma will bail us out – they won’t, they can’t

The virus has outsmarted us, it has outwitted us, and it’s winning hands down. It’s hardly surprising given how dimwitted and clumsy our response has been so far.

It’s a pandemic. Do we really have to wait for our fourth or fifth infection to work this simple shit out?

Croatia: 2 lions infected with Covid at Zagreb zoo

COVID-19 has been found in the feces and nose swabs of two lions in the Zagreb zoo, which is the first confirmation of this virus in a species in a Croatian zoo, the Agriculture Ministry said on Wednesday.

The two lions were tested after manifesting the clinical signs of the disease and due to their epidemiological link to a person (the lions’ handler) with Covid-19. This was done as part of a programme monitoring SARS-CoV-2 infection in animals and determining their role in the epidemiology of Covid-19 in Croatia, a press release said.

Total-Croatia-News.com report

 

Netherlands: Gorillas and lions infected with Covid at Rotterdam zoo

 

Image by Pexels from Pixabay

Europe: all-time Covid infection record broken by growing winter superwave

Europe has broken through its all-time high for Covid cases, and is seeing sharp increases in infections right across the continent. The Covid superwave that started in Eastern Europe just one month ago has now spread to all corners of the continent, and doesn’t look like it’s about to break anytime soon.

Virtually every part of Europe is now seeing increases in infections as the winter superwave rolls in.

 

Virtually every government in Europe has pinned its hopes on Covid vaccines preventing further large waves of the disease, a tactic that we have repeatedly warned wouldn’t work. It has been obvious for months that vaccine waning and vaccine breakthroughs would make vaccines a poor first line of defence.

Europe needs to regroup, rethink, and redraw its lines of defence quickly. Greater defence in depth is needed by using mitigations that are proven to work. 

Our estimation of the winter wave of 2020 shown in the diagram below suggests that a wave peak of around 13 – 15 million biweekly cases might have been reached had it not been for the mitigations imposed in Europe and North America in early November 2020.

The 2020 winter wave was broken in half by strong mitigations. It may already be too late to reintroduce them this to year to prevent the worst of the damage from the wave impact.

 

What was the lesson we all learned from earlier waves? Go in hard, go in strong? 

With the half-hearted mitigations that Europe has put in place for the winter wave, it looks as though we are about to find out just how bad things can really get with Covid.

 

Updatable chart for Europe below – press your refresh button to update:

 

Prediction: European Covid winter wave of 2021 will be the worst wave of the pandemic so far

Croatia: highest number of Covid cases since the pandemic began

7,094 new cases of Covid-19 virus infection were recorded on November 5th 2021, and the number of active cases in Croatia today is a total of 31,689. This is the first time since the pandemic began that Croatia has seen more than 7,000 new cases in one day.  Over just the past two days around 14,000 new cases have been detected.

There are 1,786 people in hospital, of which 234 are on ventilators. Unfortunately, a further 50 people died in Croatia in the past 24 hours.

Only just over 57 percent of the adult population in Croatia have been vaccinated, which is one of the lowest percentages in the European Union. There are currently 30,256 people in self-isolation.

TheDubrovnikTimes.com report

 

Croatia is one of many European nations seeing record Covid infection numbers:

 

 

Prediction: European Covid winter wave of 2021 will be the worst wave of the pandemic so far

 

 

 

Image by Ivan Ivankovic from Pixabay

Prediction: European Covid winter wave of 2021 will be the worst wave of the pandemic so far

This isn’t the most difficult prediction we have ever had to make, but there is no doubt that, despite huge vaccination campaigns across the continent, the winter wave now breaking over Europe will be their worst wave of the pandemic so far.

The difference this year is that, despite raging infections in many European countries, despite vaccine waning, vaccine breakthroughs and reinfections, no government is yet considering measures that are strong enough to contain the tide.

Measures including lockdowns and working from home were imposed in many countries across Europe and North America in early November 2020 to prevent the winter wave worsening. Despite their huge unpopularity, the measures, particularly lockdowns, DID work.

The chart below shows our estimation of what the winter wave would have looked like in 2020 without lockdowns. The global winter wave of 2020 was broken in half by lockdowns in key European countries and in North America which made up the bulk of cases.

Our estimation of the size of the Covid global winter wave in 2020. The winter wave was smashed by lockdowns in Europe and North America:

In 2021, however, many countries in Europe have abandoned the use face masks, social distancing and working from home. Lockdowns have been also been ruled out by many governments, fearful of their unpopularity.

 

The chart below shows what the European Covid winter wave looks like on the 4th November 2021. The wave that is forming is virtually identical to the wave of 2020. The difference in 2021 is that there are no mitigations in reserve to prevent previous wave records being broken.  Without urgent mitigations, this wave could be bigger than the one that engulfed India in the spring of 2021

Europe needs to take its head out of the sand, and do it quickly. There are very few tools left in the toolbox to deal with large waves, and every one of them will be needed this year.

We are still waiting for more data to come in to be able to make a prediction on the size of the global winter wave, but it’s not impossible that Europe alone could carry almost the entire burden of the winter wave this year.

Just to be crystal clear then:

  • Vaccines won’t be enough to stop the wave
  • Antivirals won’t be enough to stop the wave
  • Vaccine passports won’t be enough to stop the wave
  • Face masks won’t be enough to stop the wave
  • Locking up the unvaccinated won’t be enough to stop the wave

 

Europe suddenly ablaze with Covid – it could be the biggest wave yet

 

Decoding Sars-Cov-2: How are global Covid waves formed, and can we predict future waves?

 

Image by Brigitte makes custom works from your photos, thanks a lot from Pixabay

WHO: 500,000 deaths from Covid in Europe this winter

“The current pace of transmission across the 53 countries of the European Region is of grave concern,” said regional WHO head Hans Kluge.

Kluge warned earlier that if Europe followed its current trajectory, there could be 500,000 COVID-related deaths in the region by February.

“We must change our tactics, from reacting to surges of COVID-19, to preventing them from happening in the first place,” he said.

Reuters.com report

 

Covid has surged across large parts of Europe again as a winter wave rolls across the continent:

 

 

Photo by Rianne Gerrits on Unsplash

Winter is here. Three European nations see their highest ever Covid case rates

Three European nations, Russia, Latvia and Romania, have recorded their highest ever Covid case rates since the pandemic began, and at least eight European nations are currently seeing their highest Covid case rates for six months.

It looks like Great Britain may see its highest ever figure for coronavirus cases quite soon, and Europe is looking like it may be the epicentre of the next winter wave.

 

Two European nations, Latvia and Romania, are seeing their highest ever case rates of the entire pandemic:

 

Update 18th October 2021: Russia has just recorded its highest ever figure for Covid infections

 

Eight European nations are seeing their highest case rates for six months. They are Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Romania, Armenia, Moldova, and Croatia.

 

The UK looks like it might soon break its all-time high record for Covid cases, set last January 2021, despite 80% of its population being vaccinated.

Update:

UK ZOE app reports the highest UK Covid daily case rate ever recorded

Winter is here.

 

 

 

 

Image by Germans Aļeņins from Pixabay

 

The waxing and waning of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe shows new danger areas emerging

Europe has seen major changes in coronavirus case rates over the last two months. In many areas of Europe covid case rates have dropped sufficiently to allow restrictions to be eased, but there are notable exceptions. The Covid-19 rate in Spain now appears to be as bad, if not worse, than two months ago, and the Netherlands has seen a dramatic increase in numbers recently.

In the case of both Spain and the Netherlands, the rates increased following the decision to unlock their countries too quickly, and in both cases those decisions have had to reversed within weeks.  Greece too appears to be seeing a new wave, and these areas now represent the largest threat to Europe’s strategy to keeping infection rates down.

Data maps courtesy of ECDC

 

Spain: 5th wave of coronavirus storms across the country, curfews set to be reintroduced

 

Netherlands: the reproduction R rate is now 2.17 – the highest since February 2020

Croatia: no evidence of #coronavirus spillover into wildlife or zoo animals found so far

“..the aim of our study was to investigate the possibility of natural infection by SARS-CoV-2 of free-living and captive wild animals within their ecological niche. ..Based on the gained results, we conclude that during the investigated period (June 2020-March 2021), no SARS CoV-2 virus transmission from infected people or potentially contaminated environment to free-living wild animals included in the study occurred. Our conclusion also refers to in-contact zoo animals regardless of the fact that we collected samples during the ongoing second COVID-19 wave in Croatia when the animals were in contact with infected zoo workers. This demonstrates that the animal–human transmission of SARS CoV-2 is uncommon.

Investigating the Presence of SARS CoV-2 in Free-Living and Captive Animals  (PDF download)

 

Spain: SARS-CoV-2 #coronavirus infection in two feral American mink (Neovison vison) caught in the wild

 

 

Image by sipa from Pixabay